A reflection on 9/11

Block Island, RI - Southeast Lighthouse

Located in the greater Boston metroplex, our local newspaper elected not to feature 9/11 on 9/11, in spite of Boston being the locus of two of the 9/11 flights (American 11 and United 175).

Some front page recognition of 9/11 was clearly called for. It is fresh in our memory – I witnessed the second aircraft (United flight 175) strike the South Tower on live TV – inducing a sick feeling in my stomach that I will never forget. Later coverage chronicled the dreadful sight of people jumping to their demise rather than burn to death, their bodies making terrible thumps as they struck canopies, cars, and other objects on the ground. This is seared into my memory. 

My own journey home from San Francisco, delayed for six days because of the shutdown of the entire American air transit system, pales in comparison to those of the victims. A senior vice president of my firm, David Beamer, drove nearly non-stop across the entire country in two days to join and comfort his family following the death of his son, Todd, on United flight 93 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Todd, of “let’s roll!” fame. And David, his father, of calm comfort to his colleagues and family. Such courage.

The 9/11 attacks killed nearly 3,000 people. And the manner in which they died is more horrifying than the deaths of those who perished in the only other significant attack on American territory – Pearl Harbor. Yes, indeed, 9/11 must be remembered for many, many years to come. 

Because of the local Boston impact, there are many in my community who are suffering life-long trauma. I have many times departed from or arrived at Logan airport gate B32 since the event, and have always paused to whisper a prayer for all of those lost souls. 

On nearby Block Island, Rhode Island, there are two memorials to 9/11 victims. On the grounds of the Southeast Lighthouse near Mohegan Bluffs is a granite bench seat engraved with the name of Catherine Carmen Gorayeb, a much-loved daughter, friend, and mother, who had the unfortunate audacity to report to work at the World Trade Centers on a crisp, blue, beautiful Tuesday morning. And at the North Lighthouse, more memorial 9/11 benches, one engraved "To the memory of those who perished on September 11, 2001. We will never forget." Indeed. Those Rhode Island out-islanders take 9/11 seriously. 

My newspaper suggested that it couldn’t find a fresh story line. Here’s one for them… in spite of the import of 9/11, the current administration has banned the use of the term “war on terror,” and President Obama was unable to attend the ceremony in New York City this year (although he was able to journey twice to the same city in the following week for speeches and meetings).

There's your story.

Cause for optimism

There has been an abundance of pessimism lately; some might say a surfeit. An insightful article in the 9/19/09 Wall Street journal (“From Bear to Bull,” James Grant) argues that the coming recovery will arrive much sooner and be much more robust than the current economic consensus.

Grant does not claim to be prescient, but based on data from the past 120 years, observes that the deeper the down cycle, the quicker and steeper the recovery. He also notes that there are many variables at work, none the least from government intrusion, so the precise timing and form of the recovery cannot be known. Then how best to position and prepare for the upturn? Grant quotes Henry Singleton, former CEO of Teledyne: “…we’re subjected to a tremendous number of outside influences and the vast majority of them cannot be predicted. So my idea is to stay flexible.”

Having a well defined, thoroughly understood set of goals and objectives is the critical success factor, be it for individual investors or corporations. When opportunities instantaneously arise which are congruent with your objectives, you must immediately embrace them. For the corporation, that means empowering the members of the organization to do so, from engineering to accounting to sales.

All this is reminiscent of Maneuver Warfare, wildly successful and deeply embraced by the United States Marine Corps. Maneuver warfare posits that in the chaotic ebb and flow of battle, you must recognize opportunities and capitalize on them more quickly than the enemy. To outthink them is much more important than to outgun them. One way to understand this is in terms of USAF Colonel John Boyd who proposed the OODA loop – Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.. The OODA loop determines the time it takes an individual or entity to respond to an event, and to the quicker goes the spoils.

One consequence of this is that rigid bureaucratic organizations tend to be much slower in processing OODA loops than organizations having distributed intelligence and authority. Hence the Marine Corps concept of the “Strategic Corporal,” in which a fire team or squad leader, cognizant of his commanders' intent, can instantaneously exploit openings or weaknesses displayed by the enemy, and do so in support of the command's objectives.

For corporations, this implies that smaller, more agile firms with empowered employees stand to be more successful in the coming chaotic recovery. Large, ponderous firms, or worse, government entities, are almost guaranteed to lag behind. For individual investors, it will pay to search out those agile firms.