Wednesday, October 31, 2018

The Trouble With Bernie




“The State is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.”
Frédéric Bastiat, 1801-1850


Socialism has become de rigueur once again, accounting for the popularity of politicians such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Several recent polls have shown young people, most particularly, open to socialist ideas. As summarized by CNBC, “According to a new poll from Gallup, young Americans are souring on capitalism. Less than half, 45 percent, view capitalism positively.”

This should come as no surprise. Support for socialist ideas is inversely related to one’s sense of confidence. That is, as people feel less confident in their ability to negotiate the world, their attraction to socialist ideas increases. And while the economy is booming (in spite of a currently volatile stock market), we are faced with great technology-driven disruptions. Artificial intelligence and automation are already devouring routine jobs and promise to consume even more. In the not too long run, Uber drivers and over-the-road truckers will be supplanted by robots.

In light of such uncertainties, it is reasonable for young people to ask “how will I support myself?” 

While learned professors have written millions of words detailing socialist concepts, let’s try to boil it down to the bare essentials: individual effort and private property.

Imagine a slide switch which, when moved fully to the left represents complete collectivism. In this extreme, there is no such thing as private property. The state, that is the collective, owns all assets and individuals own nothing. The result of one’s labor is added to the collective pool and you have no right to any part of it individually. Food, clothing, and shelter are doled out at as the collective wills.

Now we move the switch all the way to the right. This is complete individualism and represents no collective ownership of anything. All assets are completely owned by individuals and food, clothing, and shelter are acquired only to the extent that each individual can provide for themselves.

Now, each of these extremes is highly unlikely to ever exist as long as more than one human populates the planet. In fact, the switch hovers near the middle, perhaps a bit left in Scandinavian countries and a bit right in the United States, but all productive economies in the world both respect private property rights while providing collective support. Good examples of collective efforts include military defense, roadways, and certain government programs such as welfare and social security.

Another major aspect of the slider switch is this: when moved all the way to the left (collectivism), there is no incentive for individual effort. You may work as hard as you can or as little as you like and your personal outcome is the same. When the switch is all the way to the right, your survival is completely dependent on your individual effort and success – work or die.

Looping back to the increasing allure of socialism, young people, fearing for their future, want to nudge the switch to the left. They are willing to exchange opportunity for safety, liberty for security, achievement for guarantees. This is understandable as they have not yet grown confident of their own abilities.

But unfortunately, due to human nature, socialism reduces the incentive to excel. So while all can share in the collective pot, that pot itself will tend to suffer.

A good example of this is the early travails and then triumphs of the Pilgrims, as chronicled by Nathaniel Philbrick in his book “Mayflower.”

“The fall of 1623 marked the end of Plymouth’s debilitating food shortages. For the last two planting seasons, the Pilgrims had grown crops communally – the approach first used at Jamestown and other English settlements. But as the disastrous harvest of the previous fall had shown, something drastic needed to be done.”

“In April, [William] Bradford had decided that each household should be assigned its own plot to cultivate, with the understanding that each family kept whatever it grew. The change in attitude was stunning. Families were now willing to work much harder than they had ever worked before. In previous years, the men had tended the fields while the women tended the children at home. ‘The women now went willingly into the field,’ Bradford wrote, ‘and took their little ones with them to set the corn.’ The Pilgrims had stumbled on the power of capitalism. Although the fortunes of the colony still teetered precariously in the years ahead, the inhabitants never again starved.”

A good lesson for us all.

Finally, regarding private property rights, remember that even ardent socialists lock their doors.


Tuesday, October 16, 2018

5G is coming. Why you should care.



Imagine a cocktail party, a loud cacophony of sound permeating the room, booming music and shrieks of laughter. You are shouting at the top of your lungs to your distant better half while she is simultaneously whispering to you. Further, imagine that you understand her perfectly.

This unlikely bit of magic is the equivalent of 5G full duplex radio, where your cellphone will be transmitting and receiving on the same exact frequency at the same exact time. Today’s cell phones can transmit and receive at the same time, but only on different frequencies. This new technique effectively doubles the amount of information (voice or data) that can be carried by an allotted frequency spectrum, one of the significant promises of 5G.

5G is the fifth generation of cellular radio technology and is currently being phased in. It promises extremely high speed, very low latency (delay), increased data capacity, and energy savings among other advantages.

There are a number of new technologies required to support 5G. You will hear of New Radio (NR), millimeter wavelength, small cells, massive MIMO, beamforming, full duplex, M2M, and other cool stuff. But keep in mind, most of these are used to support the major performance objectives of high data rate and low latency. Let’s focus on them.

High 5G data rate offers an alternative to cable

5G has an achievable performance target of one gigabit per second. A traditional wired home cable WiFi connection of 100 megabits per seconds is considered extremely fast. 5G is at least 10 times faster which offers a very real alternative to traditional cable. Recent research in Australia revealed that one in three households there were interested in subscribing to 5G services to replace cable for internet access. Especially in new service areas, cellular radio access will be much more economic than fiber cable runs.

High 5G data rate will enable new cellular applications

Current 4G cellular commonly offers 10 megabits per second download, so 5G will increase that by a factor of 100. While such a huge performance increase is not required for reading email or updating Facebook, an entire new panoply of applications will be enabled. Think virtual reality and augmented reality. But then think further, beyond a human cellphone user, and consider server-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-vehicle communications of autonomous automobiles. This is the tip of the iceberg of new applications enabled by 5G’s extreme high performance. It is almost impossible to foresee the application landscape five or ten years hence.

Low 5G latency is good for gamers. Surgery, not so much.

Data rate describes the speed of a connection once data starts to flow. Think of a NASCAR racer going 200 mph. Latency, on the other hand, measures how long it takes that data to start flowing between the sender and the receiver. Think of how long it takes that NASCAR racer to get from zero to 200 mph.

5G promises to offer very low latency of one one-thousandth of a second (one millisecond). For PC gamers, this is a boon. Gamers like to experience their virtual environments as if they were unfolding in real time. Business users, similarly, want videoconferences to unfold smoothly.

You will hear claims that 5G low latency will aid a surgeon in New York to perform robotic surgery in San Francisco. That is balderdash. The propagation of a signal in a fiber backhaul network over 3,000 miles will add a minimum of 25 milliseconds to the connection, dwarfing any advantage of low 5G latency. No, latency is subject to the laws of physics, so to be of benefit, network nodes (servers, users, routers, etc.) must be in relatively close proximity.

Is 5G real?

Yes, 5G is real and is being rolled out now. Billions of dollars are being invested in research and infrastructure. One measure of this reality is the number of 5G patents filed, which is huge and growing.

Are there impediments?

Yes, there are impediments, mostly political. The federal government recently decreed that state and local authorities cannot slow-roll the approval of 5G base stations. 5G uses very high radio frequencies and thus the area serviced by each base station is relatively small. Therefore, there will be a large number of small base stations. Political impediments would be very costly.

Will I need a new phone?

Yes, but when you next upgrade to a new phone, it will most likely support 5G. Some already do. In the meanwhile, carriers will continue to support and expand current 4G networks.

Bottom line.

5G is new, heavily marketed, and subject to much hype. But it is real, significant, and will lead to applications we can’t currently envision. Let’s all smile, relax, and enjoy the ride.


Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Here's an idea... Let's enforce some laws.




The most recent issue of Guns and Ammo magazine ranks Massachusetts near the top of a list of states hostile to gun owners. Only New York and New Jersey are stricter.

It is reasonable to think that non-gun-owners would celebrate the Massachusetts ranking. And that gun owners might not. While that’s true, a recent survey suggests a surprising amount of agreement between these camps.

The survey of 2,100 people, conducted by the John Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research and reported in the American Journal of Public Health, tested support for 24 gun policies. Here is there overall finding: “Although there are important areas where Americans disagree on guns, large majorities of both gun owners and non–gun owners strongly support measures to strengthen US gun laws.”

The authors go on to describe that areas of most common support, that is, upon which both gun-owners and non-gun-owners agree. “Policies with high public support and minimal support gaps by gun ownership status included universal background checks, greater accountability for licensed gun dealers unable to account for their inventory, higher safety training standards for concealed carry permit holders, improved reporting of records related to mental illness for background checks, gun prohibitions for persons subject to temporary domestic violence restraining orders, and gun violence restraining orders.”

This is good news for policy makers as it indicates broad common ground for minimizing firearms deaths. The authors, however, with abundant understatement, sound a cautious note: “insufficient enforcement of and compliance with these laws limit their effects.”

It is this last bit that drives honest gun owners absolutely nuts.

Politicians, as is their wont, continue to press for new, more restrictive gun laws. In Massachusetts, Attorney General Maura Healey roils gun owners by reinterpreting laws previously passed by the legislature. In Rhode Island, Governor Gina Raimondo creates new gun restrictions by dictate without legislative action. It is not a comforting environment for gun owners.

The most common complaint you will hear from these folks is this: “Instead of a new law, why don’t you just enforce the ones that we already have?”

They have a point, and here is a good example.

In March of this year, John D. Williams of Madison, Maine, was arrested in Haverhill, Mass. According to The Eagle-Tribune (North Andover), “State troopers arrested a man from Maine for having a gun without a license after they came upon his stranded vehicle on the side of Interstate 495.”

Williams was charged with the following: possession of and carrying a firearm, improper storage of a firearm, possession of ammunition without a Firearms Identification Card, possession of a large capacity feeding device, and several traffic offenses. Williams was held on $10,000 bail.

Williams appeared before Judge Michael Patten who reduced his bail to $7,500 in spite of the gun charges and a long criminal history. Williams appealed his bail to the Essex superior Court and Judge Timothy Feeley further reduced it to $5,000. Williams paid the bail and was released.

On the very day that Williams was due back in a Massachusetts court, he was accused of shooting and killing Maine Sheriff’s Deputy Eugene Cole. Corporal Cole, a US Army veteran, left a wife and four adult children.

This is not an aberration. In a case from April of this year we lost a Cape Cod police officer.  The defendant, Thomas Lantanowich, “is well-known to Cape Cod Law Enforcement as a notorious and violent criminal with 111 prior criminal charges in Massachusetts and currently out on probation with several criminal cases pending” according to the Yarmouth Police Department. 

Officer Sean Gannon, his victim, was also a victim of our porous criminal justice system.

Massachusetts judges routinely issue mere slaps on the wrist for gun violations while politicians continue to clamor for more restrictive laws. Does anyone see the disconnect here?

This is one more thing on which gun owners and non-gun-owners may find common ground: Enforce existing laws and hold criminals accountable for their actions by imposing meaningful punishments.

Here’s what you can do. Read the news. Pay attention. Hold our politicians and judiciary accountable.

Change starts with you.