Risky business and why we invented computers

Human beings are notoriously poor at processing risk information.

There must be some evolutionary advantage to it, or perhaps we are simply the butt of a cosmic joke.

Our brains evolved to keep us safe from sabre tooth tigers while encouraging us to hunt antelope. But somehow the wires became crossed.

We tend to overestimate the risk of low probability, high impact events. Nuclear meltdowns terrify us. Massive natural gas explosions give us panicky agita. Mass-casualty terrorist attacks make us lock down the borders.

All have occurred. All can possibly reoccur. The probabilities are exceedingly low. But that doesn’t stop us from obsessing.

On the other hand, the risk of a high probability event in which we exercise personal control is vastly underestimated.  This is why we text while driving, flirt with opioid drugs, and ride motorcycles. We think that we can somehow overcome the odds, because, it seems, that we are “good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people like [us].” (Kudos to Stuart Smiley a.k.a. Senator Al Franken).

We fear flying, because we lack personal control, but blithely leap out of airplanes, since we control the ripcord. Go figure.

Another area in which we overestimate the likelihood of a low probability event is the lottery. We plunk down our cash, some of us a few bucks, others betting the mortgage. Some of us weekly, some of us daily. We share a common aspiration of hitting the jackpot, but do we really understand the odds of that happening?

Note the table nearby. The odds of winning the jackpot in our most common lottery games range from small to vanishingly small. But there is some information that we can tease out.

Listed are the name of the game, the most recent cash value of the jackpot, the odds of winning the jackpot, the expected value of the game, and the breakeven jackpot.

This analysis is incomplete. For one, it underestimates the winnings by not considering secondary prizes. But to the contrary, it overestimates winnings by not considering taxes due. As a first order approximation, we consider it to be fair.

First, a few definitions. The most recent cash value is taken from the game websites. Because the terms of payment vary, making them all based on cash value equalizes the comparison.

The jackpot odds reflect the random number of tries it would take to win the jackpot. Whew!

The ticket price is obvious. But the expected value (EV) is a mathematical portrayal of your average winnings. Note that all of them are less than the ticket price. Translation – all of these are losing games.  Which, of course, they have to be. These games are rigged to make money for the house (the governments and gaming companies supporting them).

The last column, breakeven jackpot, defines the amount of jackpot required to justify buying the ticket. Notice that this value is often many times the most recent jackpot. (Another hint that this is a chump’s game).

So what are the lessons here? There are several.

Given these particular games, run and hide from Powerball and Lucky for Life. The only exception is if the Powerball jackpot rises to $584 million. Then it’s worth the $2 ticket. Lucky for Life, on the other hand, by definition is never worth it. Its cash payout is limited to $5.75 million but would need to be over $61 million to be worthwhile. This may be the worst game on the list.

Mega Millions isn’t particularly bad. If the jackpot rises over $258 million, give it a go.

Megabucks and Mass Cash are your best bets. Still losing games (remember, the goal is to raise revenue for the government), the odds are slightly better in your favor. Megabucks, in particular, is attractive when the jackpot is $14 million or more.

While we are poor risk information processors, and may well be the butt of a cosmic joke, God gave us a salutary gift. The ability to invent computers. That is truly cosmic.

The joke is on the gamers. We now know how to play the odds.

The Curmudgeonly Grammarian

It is a curse to be so attuned to how others speak and write, and to care about it.

After all, who really should give a hoot? The purpose of language is to communicate and if the message is communicated, no matter how mangled, hasn’t that end been reached?

Yes, but…

It tugs at a grammarian’s heart, who wants nothing but to be helpful. And the curmudgeon part (which is only a kind way of saying super-grumpy), simply transforms this into a rather grouchy urge to assist. But is this truly helpful? In fact, family and friends and colleagues of the curmudgeonly grammarian have often been overheard planning a lynching.

In spite of this danger, let’s explore a few examples of common word or phrase choices which may not be, harrumph, optimum.  Several of these are cherry picked from other publications, or from the web, but some are from these very pages. (To my blog readers – this refers to the Attleboro Sun Chronicle which runs my column every other Thursday).

First let us recognize that language changes, constantly evolving. New words and phrases join the vocabulary regularly, such as “card reader,” acknowledged by the Oxford English Dictionary in 2016 as “an electronic sensor that reads a magnetic strip or bar code on a credit card, membership card, etc.” (This does not apparently recognize that the phrase pre-existed; card readers were actual machines in the mid-twentieth century used to read and process punched paper cards. Your curmudgeonly grammarian operated an IBM 2540RP card reader in the 1970s with little lasting damage).

Other words are used with meaning that has changed over time. In the good old days, we said “fewer” when the object was countable, and “less” when it was not. Fewer people, less water. Fewer logs, less lumber. But today everything is “less.” While generally understandable, this new usage loses some information. Less people, less water. Which is countable, which is not?

Here is a good one, an example of misremembering a word. In a letter to the editor in the Providence Journal, a gentleman self-identified as a “retired educator and former executive director of the RI Association of School Principals” wrote a plaint that concluded with the phrase “exasperate the problem.”  A quick Google search finds 77,000 hits on the same phrase, so he was far from alone. But it is a meaningless statement. To exasperate means to irritate or infuriate. How can a problem be irritated? He meant to say exacerbate, which means to worsen. A problem can be made worse, but it cannot feel the emotion of exasperation. (You were warned at the outset… this is grumpy).

Here are a few more – most taken from these very pages.

“Low and behold…” – no, loe and behold.

“We got passed this fairly quickly...” – try past instead of passed.

“Establish report with him…” – hmmm, rapport?

“Waive a red flag…” – wave, wave!

“The DNC didn’t fair much better...” – ummm, perhaps they meant fare?

There are many more. Brake/break, affect/effect, lose/loose, to/too/two, there/their. This is why English is such a bear of a language to learn for non-native speakers.

Let’s close with an example of  a common phrase which is illogical.

In a recent headline, we were told that “Flynn Resigning Begs the Question of Trump's Involvement.” The editor meant to say that Flynn’s resignation raises the question of Trump’s involvement. But that’s not what “beg the question” means.

To beg the question is a technical term of logic. It means that an argued conclusion is not supported by its premises. For instance, if we posit that “thoughts are not part of the physical world, since thoughts are in their nature non-physical,” the conclusion is simply a restatement of the premise. It doesn’t prove anything, hence is fallacious and begs the question.

The headline writer would have been better off simply stating that “Flynn’s Resignation Raises the Question of Trump Involvement.” Sometimes the simpler the words, the clearer the meaning.

Time for this curmudgeonly grammarian to sign off, while friends and family and colleagues are still on speaking terms.

After all, as long as we understand each other, that’s all that matters. Right?

Energy has no easy button

We humans are an odd bunch. Ever since we learned to master fire, that magical happening which allowed us to migrate and survive colder climes, we have always wanted an easy button.

When dark, we want to simply flip a switch and make it light. When cold, or hot, we want to speak to our smart thermostat and order the temperature adjusted (yes, such technology exists).

Easy, nothing to it.

But energy production and management have never been easy. It has never been riskless.

Even in those early days, it required an enormous amount of human effort to cut and gather wood, store it properly, burn it in stone fireplaces and later metal stoves. History is replete with “great fires” which ravaged London, Rome, New York, Chicago, San Francisco and many lesser cities.

Thousands of fires over the ages, many thousands killed, enormous property damage. Yet we kept building fires, because the benefits far outweighed the risks.

As the great forests disappeared, we took to the earth, disgorging mountains of coal to heat our cities and power our factories. Black, sooty skies and great mine disasters were a terrible price to pay. But pay it we did, for the alternative was cold and dark and dank.

Fleets of wooden ships sailed from our harbors on long voyages to hunt whales. The whale fat thus harvested was used to produce light, burning in lamps. The odor of burning whale oil was disagreeable, and was particularly hard on the whales, but we persisted. Because, otherwise, only the dark.

We then discovered petroleum fuels, to the great relief of the whales, creating kerosene lanterns. (One of which, as the story goes, was kicked over by Katy O’Leary’s cow resulting in the Great Chicago Fire of 1871).

And we learned. Driven by technology improvements, the advent of fire insurance (Ben Franklin had a lot to do with this), and brave men and women firefighters, we greatly improved safety and managed the risk of fire.

Then we moved into the electrical era, allowing us to light the planet so that cities appear as strings of pearls from outer space. We turned night into day, cold into warm, and hot into cool.

But even this was not with controversy.

The “War of the Currents” raged in the late nineteenth century, as Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla battled over the best way to distribute electrical power, as alternating (AC) or direct (DC) current. As fortunes were riding on the outcome, all manner of publicity stunts were used to sway the public.

In one shocking episode, Topsy the elephant was put to death by electrocution, and this was reportedly used to demonstrate the danger of alternating current.

We must not forget that electricity has to be generated before it can be used, and like all manner of energy manipulation, that is not without risk.

Hydro power is considered clean and safe, but ecosystems are disrupted and dams can break. Nuclear is silent, but reactors have melted down. Coal generation creates atmospheric gasses, not to speak of many mining disasters. Wind and solar are more benign, but are less reliable and cost us some number of birds. Petro power, electricity generated from natural gas or oil, also releases gasses on combustion and numerous high profile transportation events (train and pipeline accidents) have occurred.

As should be clear by now, there is no easy button.

Much as we would like simple choices, we are presented with a complicated menu of risks, benefits, costs and uncertain outcomes.

What is a responsible citizen and energy consumer to do?

Here are a few things to consider.

1. Spend your energy dollars wisely but in accordance with your conscience. If you are a vocal solar supporter, install some panels on your roof. Before purchasing an electric automobile, consider how the electricity to recharge it is generated. If nuclear, wind or solar are in the mix, you may actually be doing the atmosphere some good. Otherwise, not so much.
2. Vote to influence public energy policy at the local, state, and national level. Some energy choices on a macro scale are formed by consumer choice, that is, by producers chasing your dollars. But other change can only be achieved by regulation. This is due to hidden or diffuse costs not being accounted for. Responsible regulation is not evil.
3. Keep yourself informed and think clearly. Human beings are notoriously poor at processing odds. We overestimate the likelihood of low probability, high impact events. We must be aware of this tendency and avoid it.

Energy is a wonderful thing. It always has its risks, but offers enormous benefits. Try to keep in mind, the next time you flip a switch, all that lies behind that sudden burst of light.

An Alpine Adventure

The Swiss Alps as seen from Austria.

It was a ski vacation to Austria, a bucket list trip, in the company of good, old friends. The skiing was nice. The cuisine was wonderful. The scenery, spectacular.

But I was taken by a cow barn.

The trip started from Boston’s General Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport. Icelandair flies a nicely renovated 757 from Logan to Reykjavik, where we made a frantic 20 minute connection to Munich. No panic was necessary as all the heavy ski baggage somehow miraculously made the next flight, as did we.

Munich is situated on a broad plain in northern Bavaria. As we rode south with limitless expanses and far horizons, we could only pray that there were actually mountains involved in this venture. Finally, after an hour, the terrain became hilly, rising, with pine covered mountains in the distance. Yes! We had not accidently gotten on the wrong bus.

For several hours more we continued south, into Austria, and up into the Alps. The mountains grew taller, steeper, and we negotiated multiple tunnels and high mountain passes. Finally, we entered a valley containing our destination, the village of Ischgl.

It was late in the day, so after checking into our attractive, warm, wood and stainless hotel, we wandered the streets a bit then returned for dinner, and retired, exhausted after a very long day of travel.

Next morning, after a bounteous breakfast buffet, we ventured out once again and paid more attention to our surroundings. Ischgl is nestled in a deep, narrow valley. There is a small river flowing through and a few hay meadows extending a couple of hundred feet up the slopes. Above that, it is too steep to harvest hay and the slopes ascend steeply into pine forests. The sun peeks into the deep valley, directly, for only a few hours each day. A tough environment in which to grow corn and potatoes and beans. And hay.

The valley floor is at 4,500 feet, with the slopes angling steeply up to over 7,500 feet. A ride up in a gondola is nearly a nosebleed experience. Arriving at the top, we are above the tree line, and see a plateau of brilliant white, as the snowfields are firmly established at this level. To the south, another mountain ridge rises to nearly 10,000 feet. Unlike the narrow confines of the valley, at this altitude we can see for miles, plateaus and peaks extending into the far distance. It is as if we have escaped into another world. We must wonder how the early human inhabitants of the deep mountain valleys reacted when first ascending the heights to see this panorama.

But we do know that they did so. In the summer, these snowfields are alpine meadows, lush with grasses and flowers, benefiting from full sun unlike the narrow valleys below. We must wonder how human settlers, 6,000 years ago, solved this puzzle.

They did so by migrating their livestock, cows, sheep, and pigs, from the deep valleys to the high plateaus every season. The herdsmen would live in stone huts and tend the animals, protecting them from predators with the help of stringy, tough dogs. At the end of the season, in the fall, the herds were brought back down to the village. These comings and goings were celebrated as festivals, with the cows gaily decorated and costumed.

And that’s where we were, now, in the deep valley, in the winter. Walking about the village, we smelled the unmistakable odor of cow. (Those of you who grew up in the country know that of which I speak).

And suddenly, we realized we were standing outside a dairy barn. A large, two story building nestled between the tourist hotels, on a street crowded with skiers on the way to après ski celebrations. We found a window and brushed a bit of dust aside. The view became clear, a row of dairy cows in their stanchions patiently awaiting the evening milking. It became clear that the ancient rhythms of husbandry continued in Ischgl in spite of the enormous growth of tourism.

This seasonal migration of livestock from the deep valleys to the high plateaus had been going on for over 6,000 years, driven by the simple fact of available sunshine. And it turns out that the name for the high mountain pastures are “alps.” And that the mountains in which this process occurs are called the Alps.

What a deeply meaningful bucket list trip. To ski in a fabulous locale, famous worldwide. But to discover common agrarian roots, to smell those wonderful cows, that was profoundly satisfying, It goes without saying… we’d do it again.

The power of time and one way to use it

Time is inexorable.

Imagine that you are in a railway car, one from which you cannot escape. It moves at a constant rate toward some distant end. You may want to go slower, or faster, but cannot. You can earn and spend money to buy things. Bigger house. Nicer car. Great clothes. But you cannot buy more time. That railway car just keeps chugging along, day after day, year after year, to a remote, misty end.

When the journey is new, and we are young, and that shiny track extends far over the horizon, we think that time is limitless. We think nothing of wasting it. Wishing it away. “If only it were Saturday.”

But as the journey progresses, our life events pile up and mark time’s passing. Marriages. Births. Deaths. We become more sensitively attuned to our journey. Now, each new year, each birthday, each season, gives us pause, because the remaining ones are suddenly quite finite and countable. We don’t know how much further this train has to travel, but sense that our journey has an end.

Time is, in fact, our only priceless, irreplaceable possession. We only have so much, and it passes relentlessly whether we use it wisely or squander it foolishly. Time doesn’t care. But we should.

How can we best use and appreciate our time, this infinitely precious gift which has been bestowed upon us? Books have been written on making memories, forming bonds, creating and giving, all things which enrich our lives and make our time more valuable. But let us focus on one bit of advice to those who are  still young, who have the power of time in their favor.

Let’s say you are 20-something, just out of college, in your first job and enjoying life (as you should). Although it is far distant, you should give some attention to enjoying your retirement as well. After a long working career, you and your family will deserve to relax, travel, and otherwise relish a well-earned retirement.

But today, many American families are ill-prepared. According to the Economic Policy Institute, “nearly half of families have no retirement account savings at all.” Social Security is a wonderful foundation, but is not enough on its own and must be supplemented. The most important thing you can do is to regularly contribute to a tax-advantaged retirement account (401K, 403B).

At this point in your life, you will have forty years or so to build that retirement cushion. And that much time is a powerful ally.

Here is a hypothetical case of an individual approaching retirement. Let’s call her Sally.

Sally is 65 years old and plans to retire in the next couple of years. As a young woman, she decided to provide for her future by regular investment in the stock market. Starting in January of 1976, she began saving about $6.50 per day and at the end of each month bought a $200 share in an S&P 500 fund. She repeated this month after month for 40 years.

We all know the market has seen some terrible crashes along the way. But Sally persisted and invested $200 each month, a technique she may not have known is called dollar cost averaging. By investing a fixed amount each month, she automatically bought more shares in a down market and fewer shares in a costly market. Over the forty years of her investment career, Sally maintained her discipline, allowing the balance to ride and adding her monthly buy like clockwork. What are her results?

Forty years is 480 months, so Sally invested a total of $96,000 (480 x 200). But she allowed all dividends and earnings to accumulate and grow, and never lost her nerve. At the end (based on actual stock market returns) she would now have $600,000 in her account. Not bad for the cost of a hot dog, cup of coffee, and a lottery ticket every day.

Better still, Sally can begin drawing regular payments from her nest egg, $3000 per month for the next 20 years (assuming a nominal 4% appreciation rate). That’s on top of her Social Security. Look out Tuscany, here we come!

This is not to advise you to invest only $200 per month. On the contrary, invest as much as you comfortably can. Many companies will provide a match for 401K contributions up to a certain percentage of your salary. You should always invest enough to get all of that matching contribution. It is quite possible to retire with a million dollars in your pocket.

Time is a powerful ally. But unfortunately, to take advantage of it, we must start young. And that’s precisely when we don’t appreciate it. God’s way, perhaps of keeping us all from becoming millionaires.

Regaining purpose

The New Year approaches, but this is a completely manmade event. Christmas has just passed, and it is manufactured as well.

But we all sense that something momentous happens this time of year, every year. It is in our blood, we feel the tides of the planet. The shortest day of the year has just occurred. The sun has just begun to once more make its northerly trek. In the Northern Hemisphere, we are entering the depths of winter. The coldest months are to come, even as the days grow longer and the shadows shorter.

We are disconnected from our agrarian past. But on the few remaining family farms, ancient duties are still completed. The root cellar is full of apples, potatoes, turnips, beets, carrots, onions, and winter squash. The shelves are stocked with canned tomatoes, green beans, corn, and peppers. Cabbage has been rendered into sauerkraut, excess apples into cider.

In the barn, cows low in contentment as they munch their hay, stored sunshine providing nutrition in these dark, short, cold days. The silo is full of aromatic chopped corn, more sustenance for these beasts which will provide milk and cream and butter and beef to the family.

The woodshed is stacked with cord after cord of split and dried hardwood. Burning in several woodstoves (fireplaces are too inefficient), the farmhouse is kept warm through the frigid winter nights and days.

All this munificence was accumulated with arduous work during the long days of summer and more. It may seem an embarrassment, but the store of food must last, not until spring, but until the first garden crops are harvested, perhaps six months hence.

Always working for the future, planning ahead, every season preparing for the next one and the next after that. We northerners had a keen sense of past, present, and future.

But it’s all different now. Cold? Just turn up the thermostat. Hungry? A quick trip to Domino’s or Stop and Shop. Bored? Easily addressed with Netflix or Facebook.

Our lives have become so easy in terms of raw survival. Not simple, but easy. The purposeful efforts of keeping oneself and one’s family fed and sheltered and warm have morphed into a general one of “get a job and keep it.” This has resulted in some significant angst, a lack of satisfaction, of purpose missed.

In this modern age, as our New Year approaches, what can we resolve to increase our happiness?

Here are some ideas, really quite basic.

1. Improve your health.

Eat a healthy diet at least half of which is fruits and vegetables. Consume whole wheat or multigrain breads and pastas. More fish and less beef. Eschew sugar. (That means avoid, not chew).

Run or walk vigorously. While 30 minutes a day is good, an hour or more may become habit forming.

Lift a few weights, increase your strength.

2. Socialize with friends

Research has proven that those with a wide circle of friends are not only happier, but live longer too. Join a club. Volunteer. Become a regular at a local coffee house or hot dog stand. There are many ways to make friends.

3. Expand your horizons.

Spend a weekend in your local large city (e.g., Boston, New York). Museums. Restaurants. Art galleries. Food for the body and the mind. Gain perspective, appreciate the variety and complexity of the human endeavor.

4. Adopt the AMP rule

Autonomy, Mastery, Purpose. Daniel Pink in his 2009 book “Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us,” theorized the factors that motivate us. Meant as a guide for managers intending to inspire their employees, it can also be your guide to inspiration in life.

Autonomy describes our desire to be independent, self-directed.

Mastery is the achievement of solid skills, know-how, confidence.

Purpose is the application of autonomy and mastery to something that matters, to accomplish something that has meaning.

Apply these factors to your life, choose your career and job with them in mind.

Think about the 19^th century New England farm family, working hard but happily to provide for themselves. They ticked all of the boxes above, it was a natural outcome of their world, and resulted in deep satisfaction.

We can do the same, but our evolved technologies separate us from the natural world and natural labors and require us to work at deriving fulfillment.

Foregoing are a few ideas on how to increase your satisfaction in the new year. Only you can decide if it’s worth it.

Fake news and skepticism

Fake news has been in the news of late. As if it were something new.

Misinformation, disinformation, propaganda, yellow journalism. They have been with us through the ages. Whether for political or military advantage, religious supremacy, commercial gain, or just malicious gossip, distortion of the truth has a long, sad human history.

In those olden days, the creators and disseminators of widespread untruthful information tended to be state actors or large organizations simply because of the cost of such an endeavor. Gutenberg’s printing press lowered the cost barrier, but it remained relatively high.

More recently but pre-internet, we relied on the reporting and editorial prowess of respected news organizations to gather, proctor, authenticate, and disseminate our news. We knew to trust the news arms of CBS, NBC, and ABC. The New York Times was beyond reproach. For nearby news, our local newspapers provided the same service.

But these brick and mortar news organizations, with reporters and editors, correspondents and investigators, newsrooms and presses, cost money. A lot of money. These costs need be paid by advertising or subscriptions or both.

What is different now is the existence of the internet, social media, and the wild proliferation of smart phones. We can consume news twenty four hours a day, share it, comment on it, be thrilled or repelled by it, and all this for free. (Well, not counting the cost of our phone and wireless bill).

But it is a basic dictum that accurate information is at once valuable and expensive. Free information is not always false and expensive information is not always true, but the odds are very much in favor.

Today, with the wonder of the internet, anyone can publish “news” at his or her whim. And with a modicum of skill, can even create a Facebook page or website which appears to be an authentic replica of a trusted news source.

What is an earnest seeker of truth to do?

The first is to recognize that the major news organizations all have a presence on the internet and still provide that valuable service of authentication. They are not perfectly unbiased, but tend to cluster within center-left to center-right views.  The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are not likely to outright lie to you, but they will each have their own partisan tilt. A well-informed reader might read them both. (Subscriptions could be an expensive problem which a visit to your local library might solve).

Outside of well-known sources, our next best defense is a healthy sense of skepticism. Particularly alluring are stories which pander to our own biases. It is with these that we must be most skeptical. Hillary Clinton was running a child sex ring in a pizzeria? Donald Trump was a member of the KKK? Really?

The more your personal vibes are pleasantly resonating with this kind of news, the more the need for skepticism. Don’t “like,” don’t share, don’t comment, until you’ve confirmed the report from a trusted, mainstream source.

And please realize that your favorite sites, the ones that always resonate with your belief system, are not likely to be unbiased. Breitbart and ThinkProgress are guaranteed to each have their own strong partisan slant. Depending on your politics, you will likely love one and hate the other. But neither are giving you a balanced view of the facts.

Here is another litmus test. If your news source doesn’t occasionally make you a bit uncomfortable, if it always panders to your worldview, then you are most likely not getting straight news.

Become a savvy internet user. Websites and Facebook pages can be made to look like an authentic news site, with page names or URLs which are not-quite-right. In this age of disintermediation, we must all become our own fact checkers. Be skeptical, don’t believe everything you see.

And finally, seek out viewpoints that make you a bit uncomfortable, and try to understand them. That is how we grow.

Now go forth and conquer!