Projecting the future is a fool’s game. So let's try...

“The Jetsons” was a Space Age science fantasy cartoon premiering fifty five years ago to the delight of young baby boomers and their parents.

As seen from 1962, the future was to be radically different. This was not surprising based on the rate of change that our grandparents had already witnessed. The electrification of America had just recently been completed. Television was opening a window on the world. The atomic bomb had been invented, and used. Humans had traveled in space. New-fangled jet airplanes roared through the sky. Computers calculated the census and projected election results. It’s no wonder that the future appeared so strange and wonderful.

As The Jetsons creators saw it, we would have space colonization, flying cars, towering futuristic buildings, nearly human robots, video phones, flat-screen TVs, and conveyor-belt sidewalks, all in garish color and with lots of laughs.

While the phones, TVs, and even the moving sidewalks met or exceeded prognostications, the rest of the forecast fell flat. Why is that?

There are two major reasons:

1. People cling to things they like, and;
2. Physics is a hard master.

Look at New York or Boston or London. There are buildings hundreds of years old. And many of them will be still be there for hundreds of years more. The wiring will be different, the wifi systems upgraded, the thermostats and appliances all smart, but the buildings will look much the same. Not replaced willy nilly by towering, radically modern edifices, but remaining old, retaining character, perpetuating community. People like what they like.

What about the flying cars, or space colonization? Both are strictly limited by available energy. While we are beginning to make progress, the physics of energy production versus weight has been an extremely tough barrier. It is one thing to fill up a Tesla Model S with lithium ion batteries, but the power-to-weight ratio would be prohibitive to allow that car to fly. Although Tesla is to be commended, we need still further energy breakthroughs.

What if we were to make our own projections of the future, say fifty years hence? It is very difficult to do so, but here are some technologies that will drive real advances.

1.       CAS9/CRISPR gene editing

This is a truly remarkable capability, allowing scientists to make custom alterations of genetic material. Although we have been modifying genes for ages by selective breeding (note dogs from wolves), this is nearly instant. It will allow us to genetically alter Zika-bearing Aedes aegypti mosquitos so they become infertile and gradually die out. While this seems a good thing, the power to act as God is immense, and has deep moral and ethical considerations.

2.       Quantum computers

We are already seeing the impact of a million-fold increase in computing power. How do you think the Segway keeps its balance, or Space-X boosters are able to return to earth and land gracefully? What about autonomous cars, which already possess dynamic cruise control and lane departure warnings? All of these are driven by massive increases in computer power, sensor development, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) advances. Quantum computers will help drive the next million-fold increase in computing capacity, with yet unknown breakthroughs to come. It is quite possible that all cars, flying or not, will be controlled autonomously. Allowing a human to drive will be just too darned dangerous.

3.       3D-printing

For millennia, we have manufactured things by removing unwanted material with lathes and saws and drills. Then we bolt parts together into a thing, like a refrigerator. 3D-printing is the opposite – it is called accretive, or additive, manufacturing.  A computer model of a thing is provided to a 3D-printer and it builds up the finished product, slowly, layer by layer. But here lately, it’s not so slow, and the materials being accreted have vastly expanded. It is possible to envision 3D printers being used to create a genetically accurate beefsteak, ready for the grill. Or a human heart, suitable for transplant. Or an entire high definition LCD TV. Perhaps 3D printers in the home are how the Amazon of the future will deliver your goods.

4.       Urban agriculture

There are now grocery stores in New York City which are hidden among  grim factories and warehouses. They are not meant to be visited by customers, who enter their orders online and then await the delivery of their orders in the comfort of their homes. And some of those warehouses contain forty-foot high agricultural systems, urban farms, with the sun replaced by LED lights and water and nutrients optimized and delivered to thriving plants by computer. California was made famous by delivering fresh lettuce to the east coast by rail. But now the lettuce can be gown literally a stone’s throw from its consumers.

Projecting the future is a fool’s game. The fact that it depends on people, and that people are just so unpredictable, makes it nearly impossible. But we know that several nascent technologies have real legs, already proven, and will shape our world in wild and wonderful ways.

If only we can keep it. We have been, and will remain, our own worst enemy. God bless us, every one.