Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Human Jobs in the Robot Era



Over our long human history, we have experienced several huge waves of change and will certainly see many more during the existence of Homo sapiens. In fact, when change ceases, it probably means that we are extinct.

The early hunter/gatherers were put out of business by the agrarians. Then the agrarians were pulled off the farm by the siren call of mill and manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing jobs then gave way to service and knowledge workers. All of these major changes were driven by technological innovation.

And the common theme is that, while at the time each wrenching disruption was viewed as a horrendous cause of unemployment, in the end there were far more jobs created than were lost.

Agriculture demanded the harvesting and storage and processing of crops. Manufacturing drove a need for factory builders and factory workers and distribution networks for raw materials and finished goods. The knowledge revolution required scientists and technicians and skilled assemblers, as well as a huge panoply of service workers. In each case, the demand for workers increased sharply, though the required skill mix changed.

Now we are faced with another major change enabled by advanced computing. Artificial intelligence (AI), the ability of computers to serve in place of human workers, was anticipated by scientists in the 1950s and 60s. It was logical that reasoning machines could supplant humans in specific tasks, but the computers of that time were woefully inadequate.

But now they are more than adequate, and people are worried. Robots are one face of artificial intelligence and they are here, now.

A recent Wall Street Journal report gives us some succor. As before, this technological wave will be a huge job creator at the same time that some routine workers are displaced.

In an article titled “Seven Jobs that Robots Will Create – or Expand,” the WSJ gives us some insight into new occupations that will come into being.

AI Builder – these are the PhD scientists, but also skilled machinists and builders, who will create the robots that will live among us. These robots will range from simple automated vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers to complex factory assemblers to military scouts and drones. The AI builder jobs will require high STEM and precision manufacturing skills. These are not minimum wage jobs.

Customer-Robot Liaison – mainly addressing the needs of corporate customers, robot manufacturers will need to keep their clients happy with the robots. These jobs are more of a customer satisfaction role and, while requiring some knowledge of technology, the main focus is social and personal interrelationship skills.

Robot Managers – while robots can be incredibly efficient, they are also incredibly stupid about things outside of their known context. Robot managers will oversee the behavior of robots, such as security bots, and ensure that they are performing properly. For instance, if a security bot continues to raise the alarm when the FedEx guy arrives, that must be fed back to the AI builders for correction. More importantly, the customer must be kept comfortable. This job will require people skills as well.

Data Labelers – computers have no native understanding of our world. For AI to perform useful tasks, we must explain what everything is. This crucial task is done by humans who label pertinent data, allowing the AI to learn. Mehdi Miremadi of McKinsey & Co. tells us that companies developing self-driving cars may have “hundreds and hundreds of folks, even more, sitting and labeling data.” According to TechRepublic, this may be the “new blue-collar job of the AI era.”

Drone Performance Artists – in the purely creative and artistic realm, drones are already being used in the arts as “dynamic light installations and flying props.” Artists who have a certain level of technical chops will be very successful in employing these machines in their own, or their customers’, shows or events. Like a photographer who needed to learn the technology of cameras, these artists will need to master drones.

AI Lab Scientists – one example here is AI used in pharmacological research. When the AI discovers a potentially useful medicinal compound, it must be rigorously tested. Human scientists and technicians are required to confirm that the newly discovered medicine is effective with no unacceptable side effects. AI will speed discoveries, but human involvement is fundamentally necessary.

Safety and Test Drivers – self driving vehicles hold great promise. But there have already been some tragic accidents. Uber and Google and others involved in autonomous vehicles employ test drivers to ensure that the units are operating properly. In addition, some companies are now offering semi-autonomous shuttles to move people about but require a safety driver to oversee the operation of the automation. For the foreseeable future, there will be many people involved in this arena.

These are just a handful of new jobs that are being created by the AI revolution. And there will be many more, most of them unanticipated. In the meanwhile, medical and service jobs will continue to grow.

There will be no shortage of jobs. Only, perhaps, a reluctance to retool oneself. While perhaps not for any one of us, our childrens’ future is bright.

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