A short history of communication

Marconi Antenna Array, South Wellfleet Mass.

As we drive down the interstate at near 70 miles per hour, we talk with our friends or family on the phone, or listen to music being streamed from the cloud (all using a legally acceptable ear bud or Bluetooth connection to the car’s audio system, of course). And not once do we stop to ponder what an absolute miracle it is.

Human history can be charted by plotting our various schemes for communicating information. First, perforce, by face to face utterances. Then small technical advances began to accumulate. Cuneiform, shapes pressed into clay tablets, which could be carried to a remote location and read by the intended recipient. Then paper, longhand tomes written by monks, and the printing press, making books and newspapers available to the masses. But all with significant delay, because the messages must be physically transported.

 Always, a pressing demand pushed for reducing these delays, the goal to send information increasingly quickly over longer and longer distances.

Sometimes cleverness overcame the lack of technology. Ancient Chinese warriors, then Native Americans, learned to send coded messages using signal fires. And these could be relayed from ridge to ridge covering long distances. But the bitrate (information transferred per second) was disappointingly low.

The French invented an ingenious system using semaphore towers. According to Wikipedia, “Lines of relay towers with a semaphore rig at the top were built within line-of-sight of each other, at separations of 5 to 20 miles. Operators at each tower would watch the neighboring tower through a spyglass, and when the semaphore arms began to move spelling out a message. They would pass the message on to the next tower. This system was much faster than post riders for conveying a message over long distances, and also had cheaper long-term operating costs, once constructed.”

But all of the foregoing were physical, mechanical. It took the discovery of electricity to make the next big leap.

While there were earlier experiments in Europe and elsewhere, the telegraph system of Samuel Morse revolutionized information transfer in the United States. By October of 1861, the east and west coasts were connected by telegraph wires, enabling nearly instant communication and bringing about the abrupt end of the Pony Express. Moving electrons proved to be incredibly faster and cheaper than moving physical things.

But there was another huge leap to come. Telegraphy required poles and wires and rights-of way and operators trained in Morse code. The infrastructure was relatively expensive and slow, while still a great improvement over ponies carrying packets of letters. But what if messages could be sent through the air itself?

It all began in 1888, when Heinrich Hertz discovered that electromagnetic waves could be created and then detected over a distance. The magic was beginning.

Guglielmo Marconi, an Italian inventor, was intrigued by Hertz’s “radio waves,” and experimented with how to optimize the distance over which they could be detected. By 1895 he had developed a system of transmitters and antennas and receivers which could operate over a distance of 3 miles. In that day, this was amazing stuff. Telegraphy through the air.

Marconi continued to improve his equipment and was eventually able to send signals over thousands of miles, a distance undreamed of at the time. His radio gear was installed aboard the ill-fated Titanic, and was used to signal the disaster which had occurred, summoning aid which arrived in time to save some few souls. The British postmaster-general observed at the time "Those who have been saved, have been saved through one man, Mr. Marconi...and his marvellous (sic) invention." (Wikipedia)

One of the stations used to detect these ephemeral signals was built by Marconi in South Wellfleet on Cape Cod. Today part of the Cape Code National Seashore Park, visitors may pause to consider the enormous events that occurred 100 years ago, and which have advanced vastly since then. New England residents and tourists are well advised to stop and commune here.

And then to retire to the nearest Dunkin’ Donuts (or Starbucks if your budget allows), and connect your phone to their wireless network to upload photos of your visit to Facebook for your friends and family to appreciate. And then, finally, to really understand and appreciate the miracles which allow this to happen.

It is hard to conceptualize the next big breakthrough in communication. Something to allow interstellar messages faster than light? Who knows.

Perhaps as difficult for us as our great-great-grandparents trying to understand cellphones and Facebook. But it will happen.

Seventy thousand years of migration in under 800 words

The history of humanity is one of migration.

Using mitochondrial DNA analysis, anthropologists have identified several waves of Homo Sapiens migration out of Africa. The most significant occurred 70,000 years ago, a mere blink of geologic time.

Commonly accepted theories describe a migration into Asia and Australia, and later Europe, driven by African megadroughts which “drove the humans from the land and towards the sea shores, and forced them to cross over to other continents.” (Wikipedia)

Humans first populated Europe about 40,000 and North America 20,000 years ago, both largely from Asia.

North America was settled thanks to global climate change. The very same massive glaciers which sculpted our coastline, creating Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, Long Island, and shaping Cape Cod, were also responsible for lowering the average sea level over 400 feet. This exposed a land bridge between Asia and Alaska at the Bering Strait. The resultant human expansion into North and South America was rapid. One may hypothesize that, without the glaciers, the first European explorers might have found an untouched continent, devoid of natives.

While humanity had spread over most of the world by 10,000 years ago, it was in the northern climes of Europe that human technological development accelerated. Surviving and thriving during winter was tough for early humans. It required foresight and planning. It demanded agricultural storage techniques. It resulted in the invention of tools and machines. Humans were mastering the management and exploitation of energy and information. In the end, it resulted in a highly developed, wealthy Europe. These former Africans, via Asia, became the kings of the world thanks to Old Man Winter.

As these Europeans settled North America, it became a powerhouse as well, even exceeding their parental roots.

And hence the north/south divide we are faced with today.

A divide in wealth. A divide in stability. A driving force in continuing northward migration pressures. Central Americans migrating to North America. Africans migrating to Europe. Escaping poverty. Desiring safety. Seeking opportunity. Who can blame them?

But the political upheaval is immense. Britain is struggling to disassociate itself from the European Union. Angela Merkel’s German coalition government is on the verge of collapse. Italy has elected a populist party. The very foundation of the European Union is in doubt.

Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic, the Trump administration is under enormous pressure. A recalcitrant Congress is refusing to address the mess it has made of immigration laws and the executive branch is trying to deal with it.

Both sides of the Atlantic share a common problem of disadvantaged peoples wanting to share in their wealth while the native-born, middle-class populations push back. It’s a problem which must be solved lest governments crumble.

In a recent, thoughtful column titled “The Elites Feed Anti-Immigration Bias” in the Wall Street Journal, Distinguished Professor of Law Joan Williams of the University of California offers a way forward.

First she identifies a disaffected blue-collar class who have experienced abysmal real wage growth and are the first American generation to earn less than their parents. They are proud patriots, but they are very unhappy campers.

Now this is important: Whether true or not, their perception is that their malaise is due to two factors: global trade and immigration.

Next, Ms. Williams recognizes a class of global elitists who share two attributes: a “feeling rule” which mandates empathy for immigrants, and deep scorn for “dim-witted and fat” blue-collar Americans. As she observes, “All this has created a toxic environment in both the U.S. and Europe.”

Finally, her prescription in three steps.

The first is to “recognize that the nation-state is important to non-elites.” They are proud to be American (or German or Italian), but that does not make them racist. The elites must not belittle them for being proud of their country.

Next is to identify and “highlight the ways that President Trump’s immigration and trade policies are hurting red-state constituencies.” Farmers and small businesses unable to find adequate laborers. Construction firms hurt by steel tariffs. These seemingly pro-populist policies have a serious downside.

Finally, to “avoid the scapegoating of immigrants by assuring that hardworking Americans without a college degree can find good jobs.” Social support for job training and apprenticeships would be helpful. Changing the snobbery directed at non-college graduates is vital.

Ms. Williams closes with this thought. “There’s no inherent reason that native-born blue-collar workers should be anti-immigrant. They often hold similar attitudes toward hard work and family values.” Rather than scorn them, the elites should address their concerns.

Indeed. What we're doing is not working. Might as well try something new.

Time is on My Side

Our lastcolumn addressed Generation Z, the recent graduates. Here are some thoughts for their parents, the older Millennials and younger Gen-Xers.

Dear parents. Time is still on your side. That is, if a reasonable retirement is one of your goals. If not, you can quit reading now.

But a recent Wall Street Journal analysis published on June 23 paints a bleak picture in an article entitled “Time Bomb Looms for Aging America.” Your elders, the Baby Boomers, are retiring to paltry financial circumstances which have squelched many dreams. “They have high average debt, are often paying off children’s educations and are dipping into savings to care for aging parents.” Their 401Ks are miniscule. Their prognosis is poor. They will likely work into their 70s or work tedious jobs as seniors just to get by. They will not be taking river cruises in Germany. They will not even spend the winters in Florida. They will be clipping coupons and asking for heating assistance.

This could be you. But it doesn’t need to be.

In 1964, the then-young and unsullied Rolling Stones released a song about the efficacy of time. While “Time is on My Side” was meant to describe a relationship in which “You’ll come runnin’ back to me,” it invokes the power of time. Please, remember, time is now your friend. But it becomes less so as it passes and, eventually, it becomes your enemy. Please, enlist time as your friend. You must do it now as later is too late.

Here are a few general principles to guide you into a less bleak, if not downright comfortable, retirement.

Begin to follow a responsible financial authority. Dave Ramsey and Clark Howard are two such. There are others. Do some research, ask your friends, then find someone to follow.

These authorities will ask you to plan, to budget, to track income and expenses. As management guru Peter Drucker said, if you can measure it, you can manage it. The contrary is also true.

Prioritize your spending and investment. A common ranking looks like this:

1.       Save in your 401K at least up to your company match

2.       Pay off all high interest debt (e.g., credit cards)

3.       Build a six-month emergency reserve

4.       Put money in a 529 college savings plan for your kids

Note that your top priority is retirement and your bottom priority is your kids’ college expenses. That is because your retirement is a necessity while their education is a luxury. No, really. And, they have the luxury of lots of options and lots of time to finance their education. You have only one shot to get your retirement right.

Live beneath your means. Spend less than you earn. Learn to live well while also saving habitually.

Your goal should be to have no debt except for your mortgage. What, you say!? What about our automobiles? Save your money and pay cash for them. Buy cars that are two years old with relatively low mileage. Let someone else eat the depreciation.

Credit card debt is a monster. It will consume you. Here is how to manage it. Always commit to pay off your credit card bill in full each and every month. If you can’t do that, then DO NOT CHARGE! Your credit card should be a convenience, not an ATM. It is far too ravenous, in interest and fees, to feed.

Invest as much as you can in tax-advantaged retirement accounts (401K, Roth IRA). The long-term growth of the stock market over the past ninety years has averaged 10%. You could easily retire with a million dollars if you save assiduously and stay the course. But you must do it now and stick with it.

Now, regarding your biggest debt, that mortgage. Refinance when interest rates drop. That will save you thousands over the life of the loan. Choose a 15-year mortgage if you can. If not, then make regular extra principle payments on your 30-year note (assuming that there is no pre-payment penalty). Use the amortization tools that your mortgage provider provides. You must educate and inform yourself. We are talking about a lot of money here.

Throughout all this, remember basic principles. Be skeptical. Remember that nothing is free, that you will never get something for nothing. If something seems too good to be true, it is. Don’t bite. Patience and persistence win the race, there are no shortcuts.

Now, go forth and prosper.  

Life 101 in a nutshell

With the current wave of high school and college graduations underway, we have millions of young people launching into adult life. Congratulations to you. Now you will have to buy your own toilet paper.
                                                                                     

No, really. We are counting on you. You will man our armed forces, raise the children of the next generation, and fill vital jobs. You will tend us when we are ill. You will build our homes. You will teach our children. You will grow our food. God bless you.

Following are a few observations which are likely not what you heard at your commencement speeches. Those well-meaning orators were inspirational but didn’t really speak quotidian truth. Let’s try to cure that.

It is good to remember that your life is an arc. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. We rise from the elements of the Earth, shaped and formed by our DNA, and ascend into a strong vibrant life. A miracle. We give birth to new lives as the purpose of life on Earth demands. Then descend gradually into a comfortable dotage. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Here is the very interesting good news. While our physical well-being peaks through mid-life, our happiness is greatest at the beginning and end of our lives. If you grit your teeth and slog through the stresses and anxieties of mid-life, you are almost assured happiness in later life. According to Jonathan Rauch in The Happiness Curve, “aging changes who we are, and what we perceive, in ways that make us happier—even when our bodies betray us.” Hence the subtitle of his book: “Why life after 50 gets better.” Hang in there, baby.

A few other important guidelines.

Don’t ever wish a moment of life away. “I’m bored – I wish it was Saturday.” Wrong, wrong, so wrong! Make the most of every moment. You have only so few of them. They are guaranteed to be limited, finite. Each one is infinitely precious to you. Read. Give. Reflect. Nap. Do something. But don’t wish a moment away.

Another thought on time. Perhaps you’ve heard the aphorism about the United States Marine Corps: “No better friend, no worse enemy.” The same is true of time. Time can be your best friend or your worst enemy, depending on how you utilize it.

Time is your best friend when saving for retirement. For instance, it you save $100 per week over a 40-year working career, and invest it in a market which grows, on average, 8% per year, you will retire with over a million and a half dollars. Time is your friend.

On the other hand, if you squander your cash on the latest fashions, flashy SUVs, glamorous homes, and don’t think about retirement savings until you are 60, you are SOL. (Ask an older relative what that acronym means). In this case, time is your worst enemy. (Read up on the fable of the ant and the grasshopper).

Become an informed citizen and a rational voter. We are depending on you. If you haven’t already done so, take a course in basic statistics. Many are available free online (e.g., https://www.class-central.com/subject/statistics). Learn where to get unbiased statistics. (Government and academic sources are best).

Learn relative probabilities. You are far more likely to die from a medical malpractice error or automobile wreck than from a semi-automatic rifle. You will almost certainly never win a big lottery. You must understand odds.

Understand correlations. While many are ridiculous (such that films Nicolas Cage appeared in are correlated to the number of people who drowned by falling into a pool), it is a fact that 100% of properly correlated variables are correlated. This means that you should be rightly skeptical, but always investigate correlations. There may be something there.

And many more tidbits…

Always live below your means.

Always be kind to all people and all creatures. Especially yourself.

Treasure and cultivate friendships.

Be generous in material and spiritual ways.

Follow the Ten Commandments, whether you are religious or not. They spell out a simple formula for human coexistence.

Most of all, trust yourself. Ignore naysayers. Be confident.

And thank you for picking up the traces. We are truly depending on you.

The Horror of Distracted Driving

Pete Luna / The San Antonio Express-News via AP file

Wednesday, March 29, 2017, was a beautiful day in south central Texas. The temperature was in the mid-eighties and visibility was excellent at nearly ten miles.

Shortly after noon, a church bus with its driver and twelve passengers was returning on US Route 83 from a church retreat. The long, straight highway had a speed limit of 70 mph, which was the speed the bus was thought to be travelling. The passengers, all duly belted into their seats, had no idea who they were about to meet.

Coming the opposite way, but not necessarily in the opposite lane, was Jack Young, 20, in a large, heavy pickup truck also travelling at 70 mph. Mr. Young admitted to checking his text messages at the moment that the two vehicles collided at a combined speed of 140 mph.

One of the church ladies, horribly injured, survived. So, unfortunately, did Mr. Young. Twelve souls in the church bus went to meet their maker that day because Mr. Young felt an irresistible urge to check his phone for text messages.

This horrible incident is regrettably becoming far too common. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA):

“In 2016 alone, 3,450 people were killed. 391,000 were injured in motor vehicle crashes involving distracted drivers in 2015.”

This behavior on the part of the distracted drivers is reprehensible. They are not exercising their civil rights. They are not responding to an emergency. They are not doing anything except to act in a wholly selfish manner, to prioritize their need to check their phone over your very survival. If you aren’t outraged, perhaps you should rethink this.

There are few among you, dear readers, who have not been horrified to see an approaching vehicle veer directly toward you. Most of you are lucky and the oncoming driver woke up at the last second. But many thousands of you die or are mangled. This is unacceptable.

We have been hypnotized lately by the highly publicized spate of school shootings. (Some posit that this very publicity contributes to new maniacal attacks). But for some reason we can’t seem to capture the public’s attention for the far deadlier scourge of distracted drivers.

Why is that? Because guns seem evil but cars and trucks do not? But if you are honest, in neither case is the machine at fault. It is always the fault of the operator. And the actual damage done, almost 3,500 deaths and 391,000 injuries per year, is enormous, far exceeding the emotionally horrific carnage committed by school shooters. Both are horrible. But the damage exacted by distracted drivers is many times greater. Where is the outrage?

It is time to think logically. Think in terms of lives lost, of lives mangled.

The solution is many-fold. Intense police enforcement of the symptoms of distracted driving (phone use, lane departure, tailgating, and other inappropriate driving behaviors). The courts must be equally forceful.

But we also need social pressure, disapproval. If you are riding with someone who checks their phone, yell at them! Express your outrage. Demand to be let out to walk, a far safer course for you.

Does this mean that we slack off on the scourge of school shootings? Of course not. We need to pursue the root causes of psychopathic young males who act out their fantasies. Cultural, mental health, familial – there are many potential causes which must be pursued.

But when we can save hundreds of times more lives by prioritizing the seemingly innocuous act of “distracted driving,” which is actually a monumental uncivil, irresponsible, deadly act, then we must do so. The numbers don’t lie.

The souls of the church ladies plead with us.

The Last Green Valley

Spring is finally, firmly here. There was some doubt, earlier. Snow in April, chilly temperatures even in May. But we finally had a 90-degree day and the grass and leaves and flowers are booming.

Now that spring is assured and summer on its way, it is time to embrace the wonders of New England. And one of those wonders is very nearby. The Last Green Valley (TLGV) is a geographic area extending along the eastern border of Connecticut and up into Massachusetts. It is so named because it is an oasis within a heavily populated strip of 25 million extending down the eastern seaboard from Boston to Washington, DC. The last green valley.

Viewed on a map of nighttime satellite photos, this 1,100 square mile area appears as a dark ribbon parallel to the western border of Rhode Island. Dark, quiet, peaceful at night, and full of exploratory opportunities by day.

According to the National Park Service, “The region is 1,100 square miles or 707,000 acres with 77% forest and farm lands; 24 state parks and forests, 6 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Control facilities, and hundreds of miles of trails. The region’s history is diverse including significant archaeological sites and cultural stories from the Early American, Native American, Revolutionary War, Civil War, and the Industrial Revolution. TLGV includes 43 historic town commons and greens and more than 100 historic sites and museums open to the public.” The United States Congress has recognized this prized area as a National Historic Corridor, deserving of recognition and protection.

According to the Last Green Valley website, there are 35 towns in Massachusetts and Connecticut included in the region. “The Massachusetts communities are:  Brimfield, Charlton, Dudley, E. Brookfield, Holland, Oxford, Southbridge, Sturbridge, and Webster.  The Connecticut municipalities are:  Ashford, Brooklyn, Canterbury, Chaplin, Coventry, Eastford, Franklin, Griswold, Hampton, Killingly, Lebanon, Lisbon, Mansfield, Norwich, Plainfield, Pomfret, Preston, Putnam, Scotland, Sprague, Sterling, Thompson, Union, Voluntown, Windham, and Woodstock.”

What a fabulous resource, and only a bit over an hour from Boston, Providence, Springfield, Worcester, and Hartford. Easy to access, it is bisected by interstate highway 395 between Norwich, Conn., and Worcester, Mass. From east to west, one can access it from U.S. Route 6. By what accident did this bucolic area become and remain so?

The first notable differentiator is that the rivers reaching up into the region from Long Island Sound at New London (Thames, Shetucket, and Quinebaug) are navigable only to Norwich, a distance of 15 miles as the crow flies. This is in great contrast to the Connecticut River which is navigable to Enfield, Conn. (nearly to Springfield, Mass.) To European settlers in the mid-1600s, this made a huge difference. Navigable waters made for easy access.

Another is that while industrialization thrived in Boston and Providence and Hartford, the Quinebaug-Shetucket region provided rich soil and woodlands and remained mostly agrarian.

And finally, in the mid-twentieth century, an attempt to build an interstate highway directly between Hartford and Providence failed. One of the few failures in the country (another was in Kansas City), this inadvertently assured the survival of many towns and shops and restaurants and inns and all the attendant pleasures of small-town life.

So if you have been unaware of this local treasure, you might want to plan some summer-time activities. Antiquing. Astronomy/night sky views. Bicycling. Boating and fishing. Camping. Golf. Hiking. Canoeing/kayaking. And much, much more.

A wealth of resources may be found at the Last Green Valley organization, http://thelastgreenvalley.org and at the National Park Service https://www.nps.gov/qush.

This is a national resource which we in New England are fortunate to have nearby. Please avail yourself of its treasures and pleasures.

Human Jobs in the Robot Era

Over our long human history, we have experienced several huge waves of change and will certainly see many more during the existence of Homo sapiens. In fact, when change ceases, it probably means that we are extinct.

The early hunter/gatherers were put out of business by the agrarians. Then the agrarians were pulled off the farm by the siren call of mill and manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing jobs then gave way to service and knowledge workers. All of these major changes were driven by technological innovation.

And the common theme is that, while at the time each wrenching disruption was viewed as a horrendous cause of unemployment, in the end there were far more jobs created than were lost.

Agriculture demanded the harvesting and storage and processing of crops. Manufacturing drove a need for factory builders and factory workers and distribution networks for raw materials and finished goods. The knowledge revolution required scientists and technicians and skilled assemblers, as well as a huge panoply of service workers. In each case, the demand for workers increased sharply, though the required skill mix changed.

Now we are faced with another major change enabled by advanced computing. Artificial intelligence (AI), the ability of computers to serve in place of human workers, was anticipated by scientists in the 1950s and 60s. It was logical that reasoning machines could supplant humans in specific tasks, but the computers of that time were woefully inadequate.

But now they are more than adequate, and people are worried. Robots are one face of artificial intelligence and they are here, now.

A recent Wall Street Journal report gives us some succor. As before, this technological wave will be a huge job creator at the same time that some routine workers are displaced.

In an article titled “Seven Jobs that Robots Will Create – or Expand,” the WSJ gives us some insight into new occupations that will come into being.

AI Builder – these are the PhD scientists, but also skilled machinists and builders, who will create the robots that will live among us. These robots will range from simple automated vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers to complex factory assemblers to military scouts and drones. The AI builder jobs will require high STEM and precision manufacturing skills. These are not minimum wage jobs.

Customer-Robot Liaison – mainly addressing the needs of corporate customers, robot manufacturers will need to keep their clients happy with the robots. These jobs are more of a customer satisfaction role and, while requiring some knowledge of technology, the main focus is social and personal interrelationship skills.

Robot Managers – while robots can be incredibly efficient, they are also incredibly stupid about things outside of their known context. Robot managers will oversee the behavior of robots, such as security bots, and ensure that they are performing properly. For instance, if a security bot continues to raise the alarm when the FedEx guy arrives, that must be fed back to the AI builders for correction. More importantly, the customer must be kept comfortable. This job will require people skills as well.

Data Labelers – computers have no native understanding of our world. For AI to perform useful tasks, we must explain what everything is. This crucial task is done by humans who label pertinent data, allowing the AI to learn. Mehdi Miremadi of McKinsey & Co. tells us that companies developing self-driving cars may have “hundreds and hundreds of folks, even more, sitting and labeling data.” According to TechRepublic, this may be the “new blue-collar job of the AI era.”

Drone Performance Artists – in the purely creative and artistic realm, drones are already being used in the arts as “dynamic light installations and flying props.” Artists who have a certain level of technical chops will be very successful in employing these machines in their own, or their customers’, shows or events. Like a photographer who needed to learn the technology of cameras, these artists will need to master drones.

AI Lab Scientists – one example here is AI used in pharmacological research. When the AI discovers a potentially useful medicinal compound, it must be rigorously tested. Human scientists and technicians are required to confirm that the newly discovered medicine is effective with no unacceptable side effects. AI will speed discoveries, but human involvement is fundamentally necessary.

Safety and Test Drivers – self driving vehicles hold great promise. But there have already been some tragic accidents. Uber and Google and others involved in autonomous vehicles employ test drivers to ensure that the units are operating properly. In addition, some companies are now offering semi-autonomous shuttles to move people about but require a safety driver to oversee the operation of the automation. For the foreseeable future, there will be many people involved in this arena.

These are just a handful of new jobs that are being created by the AI revolution. And there will be many more, most of them unanticipated. In the meanwhile, medical and service jobs will continue to grow.

There will be no shortage of jobs. Only, perhaps, a reluctance to retool oneself. While perhaps not for any one of us, our childrens’ future is bright.