Pondering life from slightly abaft

Often things seem so clear to us but we are wrong. Sometimes surprisingly so.

We gladly plop down a few bucks, occasionally many bucks, for lottery tickets and think there is a reasonable chance that we will win. But that chance is fleetingly slim, so much so as to fade into shimmering invisibility. A million to one. Ten million to one. Five hundred million to one. But a nearly sure thing, like a very long-term regular investment in a 401K retirement account, doesn’t appeal. A friend, the owner of a convenience store, relates anonymous accounts of customers who spend hundreds of dollars a month on the lottery. To them, that is their retirement plan. Hopes of hitting the big one.

We follow all sort of odd diets with mixed success and poor long-term results, because the experts’ recommendations (National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control, Harvard Health, and so on) just seem so quotidian and lack the snazzy social media seal of approval. We eschew carbohydrates without discriminating between high and low-quality carbs. We overload on meat protein because the typical American serving size is big enough to feed any three people. We consume enough sugar to sink a battleship and enough alcohol to refloat it. And then we sit on our generous behinds, persist in our physical idleness, and wonder why our weight remains stubbornly high. It’s not rocket science.

We wonder how Facebook can treat us, their customers, so shabbily. And while we glory in our belief that Facebook is free, we ignore the ancient dictum that there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Which leads us eventually to the realization that we are not Facebook’s customers. We are its product, neatly catalogued and packaged and sold to advertisers and marketers and pollsters. The same is true of any “free” service such as Google or Twitter or Gmail or Instagram, to each of whom we are only a slick product.

And then there is the media, the cable and broadcast and print behemoths in which we invest our trust. The cracks begin to show when we see a live action reporter struggling against the seemingly gale-force winds of a hurricane, only to spot a couple of teenagers strolling nonchalantly by in the background. We begin to question, are there any other exaggerations or distortions? Slowly, we begin to understand that, here also, we are just a product being delivered to advertisers. And that the key objective of the media is not to inform, but to keep our eyes glued to the screen through the next commercial message. What chumps we are.

Speaking of chumps, we are barraged by a constant variety of telephone and mail and email scams. The attackers are ingenious and constantly changing and refining their approach. “This is the IRS. A recent audit has revealed that you owe $10,000 in additional taxes. If you do not pay immediately, your driver’s license will be suspended.” Or, “This is your grandson. I am in terrible trouble. Please don’t tell my parents. I need $5,000 immediately to be released from jail.”  And so on. These people are vicious sociopaths.

Is there anything we can do in defense?

You darn well betcha there is. The first thing is to become far more skeptical. Skeptical of huge payoffs. Skeptical of profit-making diet plans. Skeptical of free stuff. Skeptical of the media. Skeptical of demands for money. This doesn’t mean becoming hard-hearted, just more discerning and careful.

Next is to inform yourself. Numeracy is vital. Take an adult continuing education course in statistics and probability. And another one in finance. Become more aware of how the world works.

Widen your sources of information. Read several newspapers. Browse many websites. Watch many news channels. Expand your mind.

None of this is a guarantee. But if we all exerted a bit of extra effort, we would find ourselves more in control of our destinies, and more comfortable in our skins.

But all this aside, don’t forget to count your blessings. The beauty of an early sunrise. The joy of gamboling squirrels and chirping birds. The joy of blooming flowers.

Life is a balance. Live it empowered.

Science is in another golden age

It is a truly mind-boggling period to be alive. Every time we turn around, there is news of yet another unbelievable scientific achievement. While science has been said to have had several golden ages (as evinced by such as Da Vinci, Newton, Faraday, Curie, and Einstein), it is fair to say that we are currently in yet another one.

Here is only a small sampling of what is going on lately.

Genetic genealogy solves crimes

The analysis and understanding of human DNA has finally reached the point where old, cold cases are being busted wide open. Earlier this year, police in Washington state arrested William Earl Talbott for the 1987 murders of Jay Cook and Tanya Van Cuylenborg. And more famously, cops in California apprehended Joseph James DeAngelo as the prime suspect in the Golden State Killer murders.

Both arrests were based on a new technique called genetic genealogy, whereby the suspect’s DNA from the evidence files was used to locate his relatives using public genealogy databases. From that starting point, old fashioned police shoe leather was used to zero in on the subject. While there are some real privacy concerns to be managed, this technique promises to bring to justice a great number of heretofore unidentified serial rapists and murderers.

Robots reading your mind

MIT roboticists having been working on the man-machine interface and have made a remarkable breakthrough. Daniela Rus and her colleagues developed a system where a human controller, with electrodes worn on their head and forearm, are able to control the behavior of a robot by simply thinking their commands and flicking their wrists. This technique would be useful for able-bodied humans trying to control robots in noisy or dim environments, and also for patients with limited motor abilities, such as the recently deceased and greatly missed Stephen Hawking.

The current electrode headwear is clunky and expensive but, like all other technologies, would quickly become more sophisticated and cheaper with competition.

Fiber-optic cable seismology

In 1851, the first commercial undersea telegraph cable was laid across the English Channel from France to England. Since then, we have progressively improved the technologies involved and now there are over a million kilometers of fiber optic cables crisscrossing the world’s ocean floors.

Barbara Romanowicz of the University of California and her colleagues have proposed a method to locate under-ocean seismic activity using this network of cables. Light is injected into one end of a fiber cable and the output at the other end is analyzed. If the cable was shaken by seismic activity, the output light will be distorted. By comparing the inputs and outputs of several cables, the location and magnitude of the disturbance can be computed. Since most existing seismic stations are land-based, the technique would add a valuable dimension to the whole picture of seismic activity. This would be particularly useful in posting timely tsunami warnings.

Electronic chips in aerosol spray

If anything seems like science fiction, this is it. MIT chemical engineer Volodymyr Koman and his team have built microscopic electronic chips that can be sprayed into an environment to detect various chemicals or pollutants. Each tiny chip is light-powered and is analyzed by collecting them all up and exposing to electrodes to read out their settings. In the future, the chips may output light signals allowing them to be optically scanned. These tiny sniffers could be used to detect pollution, gas leaks, and other contaminants. Human medicine is also a possible application, with these tiny devices injected into the digestive tract or bloodstream. This is a practical application of the revolutionary field of nanotechnology.

Gut microbes relieve autism

Researchers investigating the causes of autism had theorized that digestive upsets were correlated with the condition. As a result, they suspected that relieving the digestive condition through microbiome intervention might mitigate the autism symptoms.

Rosa Krajmalnik-Brown, of Arizona State University, and her colleagues mounted a small study of 18 children with autism. They performed fecal transplants to boost the childrens’ microbiome, particularly adding the Prevotella bacteria, and found that their autism symptoms were reduced for up to two years. It’s still too soon to call this a cure, but it is certainly encouraging research.

This is just a smattering of what’s going on in the sciences. For instance, a recent experiment used CRISPR gene editing technology to cure muscular dystrophy in beagle puppies. This is enormously promising research.

There is no better time for young women and men to get into STEM studies. Science, math, biology, and physics will provide a red carpet into the enormously exciting and rewarding research of our future.

And, more importantly, you will be greatly improving the human condition. Thank you in advance, and God bless.

The Sun, Our sun, the One and Only Sun

Lick Observatory, California  

The Santa Clara Valley, a region containing “Silicon Valley,” extends down along the southwestern shore of San Francisco Bay. It includes such well-known communities as Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, and San Jose. Before it became a mecca of computer chips and iPhones and Google and artificial intelligence, it was a prolific producer of fruits and vegetables. The extensive fields and orchards are long gone, but the Lick Observatory still overlooks it all.

On the summit of Mount Hamilton, in the Diablo Range to the south of San Francisco Bay, are seen several bright white dots. They are visible from most of the Santa Clara Valley, situated well above the rare snow line, at 4,265 feet.

These brilliant dots represent the observatory buildings of Lick, built in 1876 which became “the world’s first permanently occupied mountaintop observatory.” (Wikipedia) 

The observatory is still very much active and is managed by the University of California (Santa Cruz). It is accessed from US Route 101, exiting to Alum Rock Road in San Jose and climbing steeply into the mountains to the southeast. The white domes seem quite close as you climb, but you would be shocked to know that you still have ten miles of excruciating switchbacks to reach them. A beautiful drive, and once one reaches the summit, many treats await. On a clear day, the entire San Francisco Bay, and even San Francisco 60 miles to the north, are visible. The entirety of the Santa Clara Valley is revealed. And the Bald Dome of Yosemite reveals itself to the east, across the broad Central Valley. To the culinary-minded visitor, it is wonderful to snatch a handful of wild California Bay Laurel leaves to power up some dish at home.

The Lick Observatory has been used for a wide range of astronomical studies, and is still used for sun studies. Especially during eclipses, when we can see the solar prominence (extremely hot gases extending outward from the sun). This is important because we are still trying to understand why the sun’s outer atmosphere is hotter than the surface. And this understanding is imperative, because the sun is the energy source that powers all life on earth. If you don’t care about this, you are simply being mulish.

There is a great deal of solar research going on and our understanding is increasing. Dr. Emily Mason of the Catholic University of America has been studying the blobs of plasma which fall like rain on the surface of the sun. She found that, while the temperatures differ wildly, the physics of the phenomena are identical to how rain is produced on Earth. Amazing stuff.

And finally, the Parker Solar Probe launched last week by NASA.

This is a spacecraft named for Dr. Eugene Parker, a physicist who first posited the existence of a solar wind. After much opposition and derisive merriment, he was proven to be right. The eponymous Parker Solar Probe, the fastest spacecraft ever at over 430,000 mph, will give us incredibly detailed information of the solar function once it reaches the sun. And the best part of this is that Dr. Eugene Parker is still alive at age 91. God bless him.

And it is remarkable how far we have come in a relatively short time. It was only 409 years ago this week that Galileo Galilei demonstrated his new invention, the telescope, to Venetian officials. Now we are hurling $1.5 billion telescopes into the heavens.

But why all these explorations, why do we care? Because the sun is our mother, our father, our god. Without it we would not survive. We must understand it.

Which is a great reason for you to visit the Lick Observatory. Bon voyage.  

New England - a lot of sea to see

A Cuttyhunk quahogger returning with his catch.

Saturday last, early in the day, we were running up the bay from Jamestown to our home port in Cranston. The weather radar map was scary, splotched with angry red and yellow cells of nasty weather. (In fact, Webster Mass was clobbered by one or more tornadoes about that time).  

Everything was in our favor: following wind and waves, incoming tide. But still our modest sailboat made only six and a half knots at the very best, even with a boost from our “iron jib.”

It was a scary race but we narrowly won it, arriving at the Rhode Island Yacht Club with only a slight soaking, then remained onboard, snugly tied to the dock, for several hours as the deluge built, peaked, and eventually subsided. It was with great relief that we thus concluded our eight-day sailing sojourn in New England’s fabulous waters.

What a treasure we share, the Elizabeth Islands framing Buzzard’s Bay, quaint seaside villages such as Padanaram (in South Dartmouth), the larger islands of Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island, the protected reaches of Narragansett Bay. People come from around the nation, and indeed the world, to visit our seas and islands and beaches and shores. They come for the beauty, the delicious seafood, and our interesting history.

And you don’t need your own boat to explore it. The ferry services offered in our region are numerous, and many destinations may be accessed by car. For instance, Jamestown RI (Conanicut Island) is only about a one-hour drive from the Sun Chronicle area, using either the Jamestown or Newport bridge.

But such was not always the case. Before the bridges, Jamestown was reached by ferry. As a matter of fact, the curiously wide, ruler-straight, mile-long Narragansett Avenue bisecting the island, linking East Ferry and West Ferry, was purpose-built as part of that system. According to a local history, “By the late 17^th century, East Ferry, West Ferry, and their connecting cross-island road were an important link between Narragansett Country and Newport and beyond.” For several hundred years before the bridges appeared, agricultural and manufactured goods, as well as travelers, flowed across Jamestown from the mainland to Newport and vice versa. To those who are tickled by history, this is great stuff.

Cuttyhunk Island, at the western end of the Elizabeth chain, is a jewel. It can be reached by ferry from New Bedford and is well worth the trip. After climbing Lookout Hill (from which World War II watchers looked for German submarines), one can see the mainland, Gay Head on Martha’s Vineyard, and the Elizabeth chain stretching to the northeast. Bring plenty of cash. None of the business we encountered accepted credit cards, and there is not an ATM to be had on the island. But there are fifty-two year-round residents, a number that expands considerably during the summer, who work hard at a variety of entrepreneurial vocations. The seafood is fresh and fabulous. The quiet is soothing. The views are immense. And if you can stay overnight (on your own boat or at one of the island’s B&Bs), the thick belt of the Milky Way on a clear night is a sight to behold.

Padanaram, a village in South Dartmouth, is a charming seaside locale easily accessed by car. There are many older homes featuring architectures of the 18^th and 19^th centuries. Shopping and restaurants featuring local seafood and farm-to-table produce are great attractions. The views of Apponagansett Bay from the Padanaram swing bridge are enchanting. This would make a terrific day trip.

But here is the greatest finding of our journey: hope for the future. At each and every stop, Jamestown Dutch Harbor, Cuttyhunk, Padanaram, and the home-port Rhode Island Yacht Club, we met college kids who were spending their summers as dock hands or launch operators or bartenders. They were, to a person, intelligent, motivated, and kind. They were preparing to return to their studies: chemical engineer (a young woman), optometrist (a young man), research psychologist (another young woman), and quite a few more, equally impressive. Generation Z is remarkable, and we are thankful.

Let’s close with this: Go see New England, your birthright. Don’t let the tourists enjoy it more than you do.

A short history of communication

Marconi Antenna Array, South Wellfleet Mass.

As we drive down the interstate at near 70 miles per hour, we talk with our friends or family on the phone, or listen to music being streamed from the cloud (all using a legally acceptable ear bud or Bluetooth connection to the car’s audio system, of course). And not once do we stop to ponder what an absolute miracle it is.

Human history can be charted by plotting our various schemes for communicating information. First, perforce, by face to face utterances. Then small technical advances began to accumulate. Cuneiform, shapes pressed into clay tablets, which could be carried to a remote location and read by the intended recipient. Then paper, longhand tomes written by monks, and the printing press, making books and newspapers available to the masses. But all with significant delay, because the messages must be physically transported.

 Always, a pressing demand pushed for reducing these delays, the goal to send information increasingly quickly over longer and longer distances.

Sometimes cleverness overcame the lack of technology. Ancient Chinese warriors, then Native Americans, learned to send coded messages using signal fires. And these could be relayed from ridge to ridge covering long distances. But the bitrate (information transferred per second) was disappointingly low.

The French invented an ingenious system using semaphore towers. According to Wikipedia, “Lines of relay towers with a semaphore rig at the top were built within line-of-sight of each other, at separations of 5 to 20 miles. Operators at each tower would watch the neighboring tower through a spyglass, and when the semaphore arms began to move spelling out a message. They would pass the message on to the next tower. This system was much faster than post riders for conveying a message over long distances, and also had cheaper long-term operating costs, once constructed.”

But all of the foregoing were physical, mechanical. It took the discovery of electricity to make the next big leap.

While there were earlier experiments in Europe and elsewhere, the telegraph system of Samuel Morse revolutionized information transfer in the United States. By October of 1861, the east and west coasts were connected by telegraph wires, enabling nearly instant communication and bringing about the abrupt end of the Pony Express. Moving electrons proved to be incredibly faster and cheaper than moving physical things.

But there was another huge leap to come. Telegraphy required poles and wires and rights-of way and operators trained in Morse code. The infrastructure was relatively expensive and slow, while still a great improvement over ponies carrying packets of letters. But what if messages could be sent through the air itself?

It all began in 1888, when Heinrich Hertz discovered that electromagnetic waves could be created and then detected over a distance. The magic was beginning.

Guglielmo Marconi, an Italian inventor, was intrigued by Hertz’s “radio waves,” and experimented with how to optimize the distance over which they could be detected. By 1895 he had developed a system of transmitters and antennas and receivers which could operate over a distance of 3 miles. In that day, this was amazing stuff. Telegraphy through the air.

Marconi continued to improve his equipment and was eventually able to send signals over thousands of miles, a distance undreamed of at the time. His radio gear was installed aboard the ill-fated Titanic, and was used to signal the disaster which had occurred, summoning aid which arrived in time to save some few souls. The British postmaster-general observed at the time "Those who have been saved, have been saved through one man, Mr. Marconi...and his marvellous (sic) invention." (Wikipedia)

One of the stations used to detect these ephemeral signals was built by Marconi in South Wellfleet on Cape Cod. Today part of the Cape Code National Seashore Park, visitors may pause to consider the enormous events that occurred 100 years ago, and which have advanced vastly since then. New England residents and tourists are well advised to stop and commune here.

And then to retire to the nearest Dunkin’ Donuts (or Starbucks if your budget allows), and connect your phone to their wireless network to upload photos of your visit to Facebook for your friends and family to appreciate. And then, finally, to really understand and appreciate the miracles which allow this to happen.

It is hard to conceptualize the next big breakthrough in communication. Something to allow interstellar messages faster than light? Who knows.

Perhaps as difficult for us as our great-great-grandparents trying to understand cellphones and Facebook. But it will happen.

Seventy thousand years of migration in under 800 words

The history of humanity is one of migration.

Using mitochondrial DNA analysis, anthropologists have identified several waves of Homo Sapiens migration out of Africa. The most significant occurred 70,000 years ago, a mere blink of geologic time.

Commonly accepted theories describe a migration into Asia and Australia, and later Europe, driven by African megadroughts which “drove the humans from the land and towards the sea shores, and forced them to cross over to other continents.” (Wikipedia)

Humans first populated Europe about 40,000 and North America 20,000 years ago, both largely from Asia.

North America was settled thanks to global climate change. The very same massive glaciers which sculpted our coastline, creating Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, Long Island, and shaping Cape Cod, were also responsible for lowering the average sea level over 400 feet. This exposed a land bridge between Asia and Alaska at the Bering Strait. The resultant human expansion into North and South America was rapid. One may hypothesize that, without the glaciers, the first European explorers might have found an untouched continent, devoid of natives.

While humanity had spread over most of the world by 10,000 years ago, it was in the northern climes of Europe that human technological development accelerated. Surviving and thriving during winter was tough for early humans. It required foresight and planning. It demanded agricultural storage techniques. It resulted in the invention of tools and machines. Humans were mastering the management and exploitation of energy and information. In the end, it resulted in a highly developed, wealthy Europe. These former Africans, via Asia, became the kings of the world thanks to Old Man Winter.

As these Europeans settled North America, it became a powerhouse as well, even exceeding their parental roots.

And hence the north/south divide we are faced with today.

A divide in wealth. A divide in stability. A driving force in continuing northward migration pressures. Central Americans migrating to North America. Africans migrating to Europe. Escaping poverty. Desiring safety. Seeking opportunity. Who can blame them?

But the political upheaval is immense. Britain is struggling to disassociate itself from the European Union. Angela Merkel’s German coalition government is on the verge of collapse. Italy has elected a populist party. The very foundation of the European Union is in doubt.

Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic, the Trump administration is under enormous pressure. A recalcitrant Congress is refusing to address the mess it has made of immigration laws and the executive branch is trying to deal with it.

Both sides of the Atlantic share a common problem of disadvantaged peoples wanting to share in their wealth while the native-born, middle-class populations push back. It’s a problem which must be solved lest governments crumble.

In a recent, thoughtful column titled “The Elites Feed Anti-Immigration Bias” in the Wall Street Journal, Distinguished Professor of Law Joan Williams of the University of California offers a way forward.

First she identifies a disaffected blue-collar class who have experienced abysmal real wage growth and are the first American generation to earn less than their parents. They are proud patriots, but they are very unhappy campers.

Now this is important: Whether true or not, their perception is that their malaise is due to two factors: global trade and immigration.

Next, Ms. Williams recognizes a class of global elitists who share two attributes: a “feeling rule” which mandates empathy for immigrants, and deep scorn for “dim-witted and fat” blue-collar Americans. As she observes, “All this has created a toxic environment in both the U.S. and Europe.”

Finally, her prescription in three steps.

The first is to “recognize that the nation-state is important to non-elites.” They are proud to be American (or German or Italian), but that does not make them racist. The elites must not belittle them for being proud of their country.

Next is to identify and “highlight the ways that President Trump’s immigration and trade policies are hurting red-state constituencies.” Farmers and small businesses unable to find adequate laborers. Construction firms hurt by steel tariffs. These seemingly pro-populist policies have a serious downside.

Finally, to “avoid the scapegoating of immigrants by assuring that hardworking Americans without a college degree can find good jobs.” Social support for job training and apprenticeships would be helpful. Changing the snobbery directed at non-college graduates is vital.

Ms. Williams closes with this thought. “There’s no inherent reason that native-born blue-collar workers should be anti-immigrant. They often hold similar attitudes toward hard work and family values.” Rather than scorn them, the elites should address their concerns.

Indeed. What we're doing is not working. Might as well try something new.

Time is on My Side

Our lastcolumn addressed Generation Z, the recent graduates. Here are some thoughts for their parents, the older Millennials and younger Gen-Xers.

Dear parents. Time is still on your side. That is, if a reasonable retirement is one of your goals. If not, you can quit reading now.

But a recent Wall Street Journal analysis published on June 23 paints a bleak picture in an article entitled “Time Bomb Looms for Aging America.” Your elders, the Baby Boomers, are retiring to paltry financial circumstances which have squelched many dreams. “They have high average debt, are often paying off children’s educations and are dipping into savings to care for aging parents.” Their 401Ks are miniscule. Their prognosis is poor. They will likely work into their 70s or work tedious jobs as seniors just to get by. They will not be taking river cruises in Germany. They will not even spend the winters in Florida. They will be clipping coupons and asking for heating assistance.

This could be you. But it doesn’t need to be.

In 1964, the then-young and unsullied Rolling Stones released a song about the efficacy of time. While “Time is on My Side” was meant to describe a relationship in which “You’ll come runnin’ back to me,” it invokes the power of time. Please, remember, time is now your friend. But it becomes less so as it passes and, eventually, it becomes your enemy. Please, enlist time as your friend. You must do it now as later is too late.

Here are a few general principles to guide you into a less bleak, if not downright comfortable, retirement.

Begin to follow a responsible financial authority. Dave Ramsey and Clark Howard are two such. There are others. Do some research, ask your friends, then find someone to follow.

These authorities will ask you to plan, to budget, to track income and expenses. As management guru Peter Drucker said, if you can measure it, you can manage it. The contrary is also true.

Prioritize your spending and investment. A common ranking looks like this:

1.       Save in your 401K at least up to your company match

2.       Pay off all high interest debt (e.g., credit cards)

3.       Build a six-month emergency reserve

4.       Put money in a 529 college savings plan for your kids

Note that your top priority is retirement and your bottom priority is your kids’ college expenses. That is because your retirement is a necessity while their education is a luxury. No, really. And, they have the luxury of lots of options and lots of time to finance their education. You have only one shot to get your retirement right.

Live beneath your means. Spend less than you earn. Learn to live well while also saving habitually.

Your goal should be to have no debt except for your mortgage. What, you say!? What about our automobiles? Save your money and pay cash for them. Buy cars that are two years old with relatively low mileage. Let someone else eat the depreciation.

Credit card debt is a monster. It will consume you. Here is how to manage it. Always commit to pay off your credit card bill in full each and every month. If you can’t do that, then DO NOT CHARGE! Your credit card should be a convenience, not an ATM. It is far too ravenous, in interest and fees, to feed.

Invest as much as you can in tax-advantaged retirement accounts (401K, Roth IRA). The long-term growth of the stock market over the past ninety years has averaged 10%. You could easily retire with a million dollars if you save assiduously and stay the course. But you must do it now and stick with it.

Now, regarding your biggest debt, that mortgage. Refinance when interest rates drop. That will save you thousands over the life of the loan. Choose a 15-year mortgage if you can. If not, then make regular extra principle payments on your 30-year note (assuming that there is no pre-payment penalty). Use the amortization tools that your mortgage provider provides. You must educate and inform yourself. We are talking about a lot of money here.

Throughout all this, remember basic principles. Be skeptical. Remember that nothing is free, that you will never get something for nothing. If something seems too good to be true, it is. Don’t bite. Patience and persistence win the race, there are no shortcuts.

Now, go forth and prosper.