Is Math a Myth?

There are those who are calling for scaling back mathematics education. One “public intellectual” (whatever that is), Andrew Hacker, has even written a book on the subject: “The Math Myth.”  Hacker loves to use words like “inflict” rather than “teach,” and wonders why we torture young Americans with math education in these days of computers and smart phones. (More on Hacker later).

Here is one reason. Mathematics is the science of reasoning. You might think that of little use, but you must use reasoning to weed out the arguments of political hacks and charlatans every election season. Here is an example.

On November 2, many newspapers ran a political cartoon by Jim Morin of the Miami Herald. The target of Morin’s partisan jibe was those who are concerned about the increasing expense of “Obamacare” premiums.

In the cartoon, a large, rotund loutish fellow, labeled “Health Insurance,” holds the message  “George W. Bush Years (up) 100%.” Next to him is a small, rotund fellow with the message “Obamacare (up) 25%.” Finally, a frenzied character, apparently Republican, is shouting “OH NO, WE NEED TO REPEAL IT!”

Here is Morin’s reasoning:

• Health insurance premiums increased 100% over the Bush years,
• Obamacare premiums are projected to increase only 25%,
• Therefore those concerned about Obamacare increases are hyperpartisan, hysterical idiots.

But, in truth, Morin is either preying on your mathematical ignorance or is a mathematical ignoramus himself. Neither interpretation is flattering.

Over the eight years of the Bush presidency, health insurance premiums did indeed increase about 100%. However, Obamacare premiums are projected to increase 25% this year alone. These two numbers can’t be directly compared because they occur over two very different timeframes.

It’s like saying that Sally made 25 dollars this year and Joe made 100 dollars altogether over the past eight years and then claiming that Joe makes a lot more money than Sally. If we annualize those earnings, Sally makes $25 per year while Joe makes only $12.50 per year ($100 divided by eight).

To compare the two health insurance rates of increase, we must find a common time scale. With a few simple calculations, we find that health insurance premiums increased approximately 9% per year over the eight Bush years. In fact, the Obamacare increase is nearly three times that of Bush on an annualized basis. Morin’s thesis is bankrupt.

Back to Andrew Hacker, who believes that your children are wasting their time in mathematical training. Let’s see how that works in reality.

In late August of this year, Hacker was interviewed on the weekly NPR show “Science Friday.” A political scientist by trade, Hacker is teaching a course called “Numeracy 101” at Queens College which is intended to impart a minimal, but adequate, amount of mathematical training. As a practical exercise, working with his students, Hacker calculated the answer to this question: “What is the ratio of black people killed by police as opposed to white people?”

Hacker breathlessly announced their findings: ” We’re the only ones who’ve discovered it. It’s a public statistic. For every 100 people killed by police, white people, 270 black people are killed. OK?”

Here is mathematical dilettante Hacker crunching numbers to support his liberal belief in racist police officers who kill 2.7 black people for every white person. The NPR audience, surely, ate it up.

But the truth may be a hard master. The Washington Post has been maintaining a database of police shooting statistics for several years based on “public information, news reports, and social media.” They believe it to be not perfect, but quite representative.

In 2015, the Post reports that 494 whites were killed by police. Applying the Hacker ratio, we would expect that 1,334 blacks would have been killed. But such is not the case. The WaPo reported 257 black deaths, a regrettable number, but an order of magnitude less than Hacker’s claim.

In this day and age, it is vital that citizens and voters attain and maintain a modicum of mathematical literacy. It is required to detect and debunk the claims of those aiming to sway you. These claims will be many, and you must question them if they don’t pass the smell test.

We may yet regret our collective decision refusing to expand charter schools. Match Charter in Boston, for example, serving inner city kids, delivered the astounding result of 97% of 10^th graders proficient or advanced in math, compared to 54% of district students.

We need more of that, not less.

These kids deserve far better

Pathways to Education Graduates - Celebrating

Attleboro, Massachusetts, and Uniondale, New York, have something in common. Both are safe, with annual crime rates around 3.5 per thousand residents.

Uniondale, situated on Long Island near New York City, is home to many successful middle class families. Of the households with children, 73% are headed by married couples. The poverty rate is about 6%  and average household income is over $70,000.

Attleboro, quite similarly, has  67% of households with children headed by married couples and an average household income of about $64,000. The poverty rate is below 7%.

Attleboro and Uniondale are remarkably alike in important ways: low crime rate, solid average income, low poverty rate, and a high percentage of children living in married households.

But while Attleboro is predominantly white, Uniondale is  one of the most successful majority black communities in the nation.

Contrast this to Chicago, a majority minority city, where the annual crime rate is over 10 per thousand, more than three times higher than Uniondale. The average household income is $47,000 and nearly 30% of its residents live in poverty.  And those are the averages. For many, it is much worse.

The Chicago Tribune reports that the poverty rate for female-headed households soars to 40%, and over half of the city’s children live in such households.

What is the social cost arising from the cauldron of Chicago’s streets?

In the days since the lamentable events of Ferguson, nearly 200 victims have been shot and killed in Chicago, almost 800 wounded. Seventy five percent of these victims are black, as were the great majority of shooters.

For the year to date, 362 poor souls shot and killed, 2,484 wounded. There is a war going on in Chicago that rivals  our losses in Iraq and Afghanistan. And when you add in Detroit, and Boston, and Los Angeles, and Washington DC, and Miami, the statistics are truly staggering.

Activists, academics, and protestors (ably abetted by the media) have stoked the narrative that there is a war on blacks being waged by police. There is indeed a war being waged on blacks, but it is being prosecuted within their own communities. The greatest danger to a young black male in Chicago is another young black male. While this may be an uncomfortable concept, it is a truth revealed in Department of Justice statistics.

Imagine being a young urban black child, where every outing risks a credible threat of death or serious injury. Imagine the effect on his or her psyche, the damage it causes. The social costs are enormous, the moral stain on us for not responding is shameful. How can our leaders, political and activist, not speak out?

Some are responding.

Carolyn Acker, then the Director of the Regents Park Community Health Center, saw that the children of the neighborhood were its future. They would become its doctors and nurses, administrators and lawyers. But to do so, they would need an education, and the dropout rate in the community was an abysmal 56%.

She collaborated with others to create a program called Pathways to Education in 2001. Soon after Pathways went into action, the dropout rate began to drop – to 10%. This was an enormous success. The Pathways program has been replicated to several other communities with similar results.

How does Pathways operate? It is based on four pillars: counseling, academic, social, and financial.

For counseling, each student who signs up is assigned a counselor. The counselor regularly checks in with the student to see how they are doing. The counselor maintains high expectations and provides the student with encouragement and suggestions for achievement.

In the academic arena, tutors are provided and sessions are mandatory unless the student maintains a grade average above 70%.

The social aspect consists of regular activities with peers where students get to interact socially with other like-minded, academically achieving kids. They will have fun, learn new skills, and develop hobbies in a nurturing environment.

The final pillar is financial, in which students are given financial aid for public transportation. To the kids, it is a big deal to be able to ride the bus to school. But if their grades don’t stay up, or if they skip school, the aid is incrementally reduced.

The students participating in this program are amazingly successful compared to their cohort. They are graduating high school, going to college, and getting good jobs.

Pathways is a great success, albeit an expensive one.

But let’s stop and think a moment. Imagine a child in Uniondale growing up in a household with a caring mother and father. She would be counseled to succeed and expectations would be high. Her parents would assist academically, sitting down to help with homework. She would be enrolled in sporting teams, school band, church choir, and other social activities. And her parent would certainly support her financially.

Pathways works because it operates in place of the family, filling the role of the parents.

Here’s our call to action. Our policies and programs, designed to help and with all the best intentions, have devastated the black family. It is time to think constructively, with open, honest debate and determination to find a better way.

These kids deserve far better. To fail them is a sin.

Let's laugh together, shake hands and get to work

What does it take to lift oneself from poverty? A topic of great debate, it is often argued stridently across an ideological chasm, light of fact and heavy of slur. So it is refreshing to see some actual data.

Researchers at Baltimore’s John Hopkins University have just concluded their life’s work. Karl Alexander, Doris Entwisle, and Linda Olson’s new book, “The Long Shadow,” documents the trials and tribulations of nearly 800 inner city children from the first grade in 1982 through adulthood. The 25-year study tracks the childrens’ educational achievements, family status, and eventual economic outcomes.

The results could not be simpler: family matters.

Nearly half of all children from poor families remained poor as adults. Children from families with more resources tended to be more successful as adults.

Children from low-income families were 10 times less likely to complete college than those from higher-income families. Only 4 percent of children from low-income families achieved a college degree as opposed to 45 percent from middle class or affluent families.

Women benefit from marriage. Those in stable relationships had a larger household income than single women.

As the study involved a mixture of races, there were race-based observations as well.

For non-college degreed men, white men found better paying jobs than black men – on average $43,500 vs. $21,500. These jobs were typically in the trades or the remaining industrial base of Baltimore. (This income discrepancy diminished with educational achievement).

For those without a high school diploma, the results were even more dramatic. The unemployment rate for white male high school dropouts was 11 percent; for blacks, 60 percent.

Black women had fewer family resources than white women. This is compounded by their lower marriage rate versus white women (31% vs. 55%).

Black men were six times more likely to be incarcerated than white men. Very disruptive to black family structure, this contributed to the lower household income of black women.

These are all facts. Incontrovertible. But here is where the argument starts – in determining the “why.”

Why are poor children stuck in poverty? Why do children from more affluent families do well? Why is educational achievement so difficult for poor children? Why do white men have better paying jobs than blacks? Why do black women have fewer financial resources? Why is their marriage rate lower? Why are black men incarcerated at such a high rate?

The answers to these questions are not trivial. They spell the difference between effective and failing (but feel-good) programs. Worse, bad programs that can actually do harm.

We spend enormous resources on social programs in an attempt to salve these ills. Nearly $3 trillion per year is poured into means-tested governmental and private charitable welfare programs (not including Social Security and Medicare). But more than the waste of well-intended but ill-performing programs is the human tragedy of lives not actualized, dreams not achieved.

One would think that the debate would be rigorous, rational, wide-ranging, and thoughtful. It is not.

Instead, political correctness constrains what can be said and who can say it. Ad hominem attacks substitute for reasoned rejoinder (“I don’t agree with what you just said, so you are a worthless blob of human waste”). There are many articles on the web describing the Alexander (et al) study. Reading the comments following the articles is quite revealing. A poster may pose a hypothesis only to be shouted down in a storm of vituperation terming him or her as racist, brainless, or “a hater.” It is an emotional mob, incapable of reasoning.

Unfortunately, the same is true in the wider public sphere. Letters to the editor lean heavily on personal attack, light on debate. Politicians, with few exceptions, avoid reality, speak in platitudes, and attempt to buy more votes. There is no holding to account for actual results.

Here is the truth. Racism still exists. But so, too, does tolerance. Progressives are not idiots, conservatives are not evil. Both want the best outcome for the most people, but differ on how to achieve it. These are chasms that can be crossed, common purposes achieved.

What stands in the way? Political correctness is a scourge. It must be fought resolutely as the fundamental danger that it is. Rigid ideologies are even worse. The truth always exists in the grey netherworld between extremes.

Here is a quote from a great philosopher, comedian Bill Cosby. “You can turn painful situations around through laughter. If you can find humor in anything, even poverty, you can survive it.”

Let’s laugh together, shake hands, and get to work.

Knowledge is Power

Huge 3D printers will build houses.

In the 1961 film “The Errand Boy”, Jerry Lewis plays the part of a mailroom clerk serving a sprawling Hollywood studio. The movie depicts Lewis and his band of fellows as they deliver mail and scripts and revisions and memos between hundreds of offices. In typical Lewis fashion, there are lots of laughs as items are misdelivered and paper flies everywhere.

The mailroom was a classic entry opportunity into the business world. Mail clerks, if assiduous, could learn the business, gain knowledge, and begin to rise within the organization. The mailroom was a common feature of many businesses as disparate as banks, grocery chains, manufacturers, and hospitals. They all had in common the need to distribute information between knowledge workers in a variety of departments, a function the mailroom was designed to fulfill.

But the number of mailroom jobs is quickly dwindling and the culprit is obviously the rise of digital technologies. Email and text messages and a variety of other technologies have sharply reduced the need for human clerks to move physical representations of information from place to place. We now increasingly move information as bits over the internet, not physical pages made of atoms. Bits don’t require clerks as atoms do.

This is only the tip of the iceberg. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the fastest growing and most rapidly declining occupations over the next ten years.  Not really surprising, health care, computer, and construction jobs are ascendant. Equally not a shock is that apparel manufacturing, federal postal work, and sugar and confectionary production are on the decline.  A combination of dietary evangelism, technological shifts, and globalization has created winners and losers in the job market.

There is yet another technological revolution on the horizon which may wreak havoc with skilled machinists and a number of other occupations – 3D printing.

Everyone is familiar with the concept of metal working, where milling machine or lathes are used to manufacture precision parts. These parts are then combined with others, screwed, bolted or glued together to create a final product or component such as an airplane wing or an artificial limb.

3D printing turns this time honored approach on its head. The thing to be produced is first represented, in its entirely, as a  highly detailed computer file. This information is then processed by a machine which miraculously turns the description of the thing into the thing itself.

The machine, a three dimensional “printer,” is called such because the basic mechanism is reminiscent of the old dot matrix printer.  A dot matrix computer printer utilizes a print head which moves left and right across a page and deposits tiny dots of ink to create letters and numbers and graphics; patterns of dots which finally become your recipe for tomato soup or a letter to mom.

Now imagine a “print head” that can move in three dimensions – vertically as well as two horizontal directions – and instead of ink, exudes bits of material which harden on contact. Processing the detailed design file, the 3D printer patiently “paints” the thing itself, building up layers as it sweeps back and forth. It can take many hours, but an actual object, such as a coffee cup or piece of jewelry, finally emerges.

Long a curiosity of hobbyists, 3D printers were little more than expensive toys. But continued refinement has vastly improved their capabilities. For instance, Boeing now uses 3D printers to create certain airplane parts. Medical researchers are printing human body parts, such as kidneys and livers, and while this is still in the experimental stage, the prognosis is good.

A University of Southern California team is building a huge 3D printer designed to create buildings. Exuding concrete, this machine will be capable of creating houses or other structures, complete, from the ground up.

This technology is truly amazing and will revolutionize how we humans create objects in our world. But what does all this mean on the job front?

Like other disruptive technologies, it will destroy some occupations but create many others. It is difficult to precisely predict the job skills demanded in this new world. But for our children, a solid education including language and computers and mathematics seems a good bet. The successful worker of tomorrow will need to be literate in many ways.

As we were all taught, knowledge is, indeed, power.

Resolution for 2014 - Bring back the middle class!

Erie, PA, is nearly a perfect example. Situated on a rare natural harbor at the confluence of major railroad lines and highways, Erie grew to become a crown jewel in the armory of freedom. Foundries and metal working abounded. Huge factory buildings lined 12^th Street, employing tens of thousands of skilled and semi-skilled and even illiterate workers. During and immediately after World War II, this was a booming manufacturing economy.

But then in the 1970s, recession and the beginnings of globalization struck. Companies went bankrupt. Plants were relocated or closed. The noon whistle summoned far fewer workers to open their lunch buckets. It was the beginning of the squeeze on the middle class. Today, 12^th Street is lined with derelict factory buildings, windows broken and boarded up. This is what "the rust belt" means.

And the same is true of Lowell and Fall River and Pawtucket, where mill workers' jobs first moved south and then overseas. Attleboro, where jewelry making had supported many families for many years, has seen those jobs evaporate.

One would think that manufacturing is a game that we have lost, and we’d better get used to it.

But the truth is dramatically different. The United States is a huge contributor to the world’s manufacturing output. With nearly $2 trillion generated from manufacturing in 2011, the US equaled the total output of Germany, Italy, South Korea, Brazil, and Russia combined.

If this is the case, then, why is our middle class suffering? Why is our unemployment rate still over 7%?

The answer is that there is a huge skills gap for manufacturing jobs. This can be explained in part by the enormous productivity of the American worker. China requires nearly ten times the workers to generate the same manufacturing output as the US. Largely this is due to our manufacturing mix. They are making consumer electronics and hardware while we are making supercomputers and airliners.

But there is more. Even locally, in Erie PA and Attleboro, there are manufacturing and skilled trades jobs open that can’t be filled. Employers are looking for workers who can program a CNC machine, not just turn a wrench. Illiteracy, or worse, innumeracy, are huge disqualifications. So nationwide, millions of jobs go unfilled for want of qualified candidates. Students who fail to graduate high school can’t possibly compete for these jobs. And worse, many graduates lack the necessary skills that employers require.

When we see educational rankings by country, with the US listed 26^th in math, how can we expect to fuel our high tech manufacturing sector with qualified workers? It’s a serious problem when only 75% of American students graduate from high school, and many who do graduate are weak in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math). The needs of the future are clear – we will require more literate, STEM-qualified workers, not fewer.

So in this new year of 2014, what can we do? What can you, in particular, do? Here are a few suggestions.

1. Support your local literacy center. In Attleboro, it is the TLC (www.theliteracycenter.com). Literacy centers help retool adults who need a boost. Donate funds, volunteer as a tutor.
2. Support your local schools. But be demanding. What are they doing to reward and replicate the accomplishments of successful teachers? Are they cranking out graduates who need remedial training in the real world? Are local employers lining up at the door to snap up graduates?
3. Educate yourself and vote. Forget the party line. Vote for whomever explains how to improve the educational attainment of our youth. If that’s through the public schools, how?  Parochial or charter schools? Elevating the importance of trade schools? German-style apprenticeship programs?

If we want to see our middle class revitalized, the key is to rebuild our manufacturing and trades sectors. But to do that, we need to equip prospective workers with something of value. Employees must be able to fluently navigate the literacy and engineering and math requirements of the modern manufacturing job. And we can help them achieve that. 
 
The bottom line is that you can be an active part of the solution if you inform yourself and take action. This is a case where bottom-up social activism can be effective, but only if enough of us care. Make this a resolution for 2014.

Start with a call to your Literacy Center.

Happy New Year!